102
AXNT20 KNHC 170435
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gordon is near 19.0N 48.8W at 11 PM EDT, and
is moving west at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed within 120 nm
south and west of the center, while only 60 nm to the east and
north. Scattered showers are seen within 300 nm to the east of the
center. Peak seas are presently to near 10 ft. The depression is
moving slowly westward and a turn toward the north is expected
during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-
northeast on Wednesday. Gordon could gradually re-intensify by
midweek and become a tropical storm again.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
  Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 1008 mb low is near
29N49W, while a cold front extends from the low to 26N53W and then
to another low near 30N62W. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring north of 27N and between 43W and 48W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near
gale-force northerly winds to the west of the low and north of the
frontal boundary and fresh to strong southerly winds east of the
low. Seas are currently 8-12 ft in the area described. The low
pressure will move southwestward over the next few days and weaken
late this week as Gordon moves northward. Seas will build over the
next day or so. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE swell will cover
an area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W and 55W Tue
morning through Wed afternoon. Strong to near gale-force NE winds
will also accompany these peak seas during the same time frame,
with gale force winds expected just N of the area. Significant
wave heights are forecast to gradually begin to subside late Wed
into Thu.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring from
06N to 15N and between 18W and 31W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. The southern portion of the trough axis
is enhancing the scattered showers and thunderstorms over
northern Colombia.

A tropical wave is along 89W, extending from southern Yucatan to
El Salvador and into the Eastern Pacific. A few showers are noted
near this boundary.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 14N17W through the
coast of Senegal and continues west-southwestward to 11N29W and
then to 16N43W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for information
on convection near the monsoon trough / ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper level trough over the eastern United States and a
stationary front in the NE Gulf result in scattered showers over
much of the southern half of the basin. Generally dry continental
air dominates the northern portion of the Gulf, suppressing the
formation of showers and thunderstorms. The weak pressure pattern
promotes moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting generally light to gentle winds and slight seas into
Thu. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of
Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A cold front
moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds
across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to produce strong
showers and thunderstorms over much of Cuba and spilling into the
waters south of the island. Similar convection is noted off NW
Colombia and eastern Panama. Drier conditions are found in the
rest of the basin, especially in the NE and north-central
Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between a broad 1028 mb ridge off New
England and lower pressures in northern South America result in
fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean.
This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas
in these waters are 5-8 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas
are present off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are
evident in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh trades across much of the basin through
Wed. Strong winds and locally rough seas will be possible off the
coast of Venezuela and Colombia into Wed night. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds and slight seas will then occur across
central portions of the Caribbean Thu into the weekend, with
gentle to moderate winds occurring across NW and SW portions of
the basin

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Depression Gordon and the Gale center in the central
Atlantic.

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N76W and
continues to the just south of Melbourne, Florida. Divergence
aloft and abundant moisture supports scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms west of 73W. The strongest convection is occurring
over central Cuba and in the waters between Cuba and the central
Bahamas. The rest of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W) is under
the influence of a broad 1028 mb ridge off New England that forces
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 22N and
between 69W and 72W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 55W.

In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, outside of the influence of
TD Gordon and the Gale center discussed in the Special Features,
broad ridging dominates, supporting moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, residual rough seas off the coast of
northeast Florida, generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
currently located inland over the Carolinas, will subside into Tue
morning. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse off
the coast of Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
NE winds and rough seas will develop north of 25N and east of 65W
on Tue as a surface low currently located near 30N49W strengthens.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
Delgado