590
AXNT20 KNHC 150429
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0429 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.7N 43.8W at 15/0300
UTC or 1170 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W-SW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft
seas extend 210 nm in the NE quadrant and 150 nm in the NW
quadrant with peak seas around 15 ft. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 39W
and 42W. Gordon is expected to have a slightly slower west-
southwestward or westward motion during the next several days.
Gordon is expected to become a depression later tonight or on
Sunday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form during
the next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles
off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics afterward over
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm could form in the next couple of days, while
the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
Additional information on this system can be found in products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office
and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Please also consult the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued
by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gob for more
details. This system has a medium chance of development in the
next 48 hours and the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22.5W from 03N
to 17N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at around 5 kt. No
significant convection is depicted in association with this
wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 20N
southward to central Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No
significant convection is depicted in association with this
wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W extending from 21N
to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of
the wave off the coast of Colombia. .

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and
continues southwestward to 08N28W and to 12N35W, and then from
15N49W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 12N between 27W and 41W and between 46W and 54W. A
cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving off the coast of
Guinea and Sierra Leone. .

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
A 1010 mb low pressure is noted along the Florida Panhandle near
30N85W with a surface trough extending south of the low to
28N85W. No significant convection is noted over the water at
this time as all convection is over Florida. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the basin
into Mon, with generally tranquil conditions expected across the
basin. Locally moderate to fresh winds could pulse in the Bay of
Campeche nightly through the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

Evening convection is drifting southward from Cuba into the NW
Caribbean. A small weak surface trough is depicted west of
Jamaica and is producing scattered moderate convection across
the area. Elsewhere, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind
pattern continues across much of the basin. Fresh to locally
strong northeast to east winds are noted north of Colombia and
northern Venezuela. Otherwise, gentle to moderate east trade
winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and
eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to east and to
southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week,
with locally strong winds possible Sun night into early Wed.
Pulsing moderate to locally fresh E winds will also occur off
the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas
will continue across the waters the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic and the developing area of
low pressure off the southeastern US coast, and the Tropical
Waves section for details on the wave in the basin.

A cold front extends from NE Florida to a 1009 mb low near
30.8N75.9W. A prefrontal surface trough is analyzed from 28N79W
to southeast Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the low north of 30.5N. Similar convection is noted off the
Florida coast and ahead of the prefrontal trough N of 25N west
of 77W. Farther east a prefrontal trough associated with a
stationary front north of the area extends from 30N54W to
29N64W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring N
of 28N between 54W and 65W. North of 29N and west of 76W
northeast winds are moderate to fresh with locally strong winds.
Seas in these waters are 5 to 9 ft. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm
Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft occurring from the Canary
Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of
31W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low
pressure is expected to form during the next day or so along a
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S.
coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics afterward over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm
could form in the next couple of days, while the system moves
generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the
waters north of 29N into early next week. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise.
$$
KRV