104
ABNT20 KNHC 222101
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update the discussion of the
low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico (AL93).

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico does not have a well-defined circulation.
Environmental conditions appear to have become a little more
marginal for development of this system as it moves slowly
northwestward, but a tropical depression could still form before the
system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sunday night.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause
localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep
South Texas through the end of the weekend.  Another Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Near the Georgia Coast (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
centered just inland over southeastern Georgia have decreased
during the past several hours.  The low is expected to drift slowly
north-northeastward near the coasts of Georgia and southern South
Carolina through tonight before dissipating by Sunday.  Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven