613
ABNT20 KNHC 211433
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure
system over the southwestern Atlantic (AL92).

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Updated:  Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of
low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida,
has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is
producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and
thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be
considered a tropical cyclone.  However, only a small increase in
the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it
reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress.  For more information,
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico later today.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche
tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.  Local National
Weather Service forecasts can be found at www.weather.gov.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg