961
FXUS61 KBGM 191836
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
236 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through the entire week. A break in
the heat may not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update:

Isolated convection will continue at times into tonight mainly
extending from the western Finger Lakes to the Upper Mohawk
Valley where lingering boundaries exist amongst better broad
scale lift south of the prevailing westerlies. Diurnal
stabilization should end best chances, but persistent high
dewpoints will still provide fuel for any rogue meso convective
system that rides the ridge later on. Not seeing any indications
of this to be confident, but a primed atmosphere will do what
it wants.

Ridge flattens further on Thursday with stronger westerlies
expected to dip across northern NY. Once again, hot and humid
conditions will prevail, however, confidence is higher that
thunderstorms may be a little more intense and numerous than
the past several days. Strong low level lapse rates will exist
with max CAPE values likely nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. With the
stronger flow aloft moving in, 0-6 km bulk shear will increase
to around 20 to 25 knots, which should be enough to support a
better organization of convection than today. Locally damaging
winds will be the main threat. Also, PWATs will again be in the
99th percentile range and short Corfidi vectors of less than 10
knots suggest heavy down pours and back building thunderstorms
will be possible, with a threat for localized flash flooding.

A continuation of warm and muggy conditions at night will
continue Thursday night and with a weak stationary front in the
area, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into the
evening.

Lows in the 70s and highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms carrying over into the
evening hours Thursday night will diminish in coverage with the
loss of daytime heating but may not completely come to an end
later at night as a weak cold front slowly sags southward across
the region. Lows overnight are expected to be in the upper 60s
to near 70 degrees.

The front is expected to stall out near or just south of the
Twin Tiers later Friday. This front combined with pieces of
energy riding along the northern periphery of the strong upper
ridge centered to our southwest is expected to lead to the
development of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the
peak heating hours. With ample instability with pockets of
surface-based CAPE greater than 1500-2000 J/kg and marginal
shear values, some storms can once again be locally strong to
severe with isolated damaging winds the main concern. However,
any slower-moving storms can produce heavy rainfall with PWAT
values anywhere from 1.5 to nearly 2.0 inches across the area.
Cloud cover and the convection across the area combined with the
placement of the stalling front will lead to a tricky temperature
forecast Friday. Highs are expected to range in the lower to
mid 80s across CNY, while the Twin Tiers and Northeast PA range
from the mid 80s to low 90s.

With the quasi-stationary front remaining in the area Saturday
and eventually lifting back north later Saturday and into
Saturday night, additional scattered showers and storms are
expected to pop up with the heating of the day. As the front
lifts north and winds begin to become more southwesterly, this
can send high temperatures west of I-81 into the mid and upper
80s, while areas to the east are slightly lower in the low an
mid 80s, but again this will be another difficult temperature
forecast day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
405 AM Update...

The strong upper-level ridge is expected finally begin breaking
down Sunday as a shortwave trough and surface cold front
approach from the west bringing increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty with the timing of
the cold frontal passage Sunday and Sunday night and when the
chances of showers/storms would be greatest, but cooler air does
appear to filter into the area Monday in the wake of the
boundary. With the upper trough lagging behind over the area
Monday, there can be a lingering shower or storm, followed by
high pressure and drier air returning Tuesday.

After a warm, muggy Sunday with high temperatures expected to
be in the mid and upper 80s, it will feel more comfortable as
both day and nighttime temperatures and dew points come back
down to near or slightly above average Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm and humid conditions continue to prevail under high
pressure with VFR expected for the bulk of the forecast period.
However, subtle boundaries and differential terrain heating will
keep triggering isolated convection into tonight. TCF indicated
thunderstorm chances extending into the KSYR area later this
afternoon which is backed up in the model forecasts so this is
the only airport I included future convection with a slightly
higher confidence of occurring. Isolated cells in the vicinity
of KRME should remain away from the runways, and only be an
impact for the first hour or so. T-storms should wane after dark
and confidence of any future upstream convection impacting the
region is low. More thunderstorms will be developing on
Thursday, but again confidence is too low at this point to
include late in the forecast period but after 15Z-16Z Thursday
becomes more possible.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JAB/MPK