839
FXUS61 KBGM 011017
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
617 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will continue through tonight.
Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of I-81. Otherwise,
warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected through the first
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 AM Update...

Temperatures and dew points were adjusted based on the latest
obs. There were quite a few areas that dropped to around 40 this
morning. Over the much cooler areas, temperatures were warmed
up more gradually this morning. Otherwise, the forecast was
doing well.

230 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the region today. Skies will be
mostly sunny with passing high clouds overhead. Temperatures will
climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. High clouds will move in
overnight as cloud cover gradually increases from the west.
Conditions remain quiet through the overnight hours with
temperatures only falling into the 50s.

A weak shortwave trough moves into the region Sunday as the ridge of
high pressure drifts eastward. This system will have to overcome the
drier air that will linger through at least the morning hours.
Showers that can develop will likely be spotty and mostly limited to
locations west of I-81. There does remain some uncertainty though as
most model guidance has trended drier with the GFS and some of the
CAMs being the exceptions. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be
ruled out as some guidance show weak surface-based instability (200-
400 J/kg) and shear (20 kts). Cloud cover will factor into how
unstable we get. Thunderstorm chances were based on the NAM and GFS,
so the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region would have the
best chance of seeing a thunderstorm. Southerly flow will help
temperatures reach the 70s and low 80s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM Update

A weak wave of low pressure will be passing over the area Sunday
night into early Monday morning. There remain some differences
in the model guidance as far as QPF amounts and areal extent of
the rain shower activity. Overall, the highest PoPs (chance
30-50%) were placed over the NY Southern Tier and NE PA. It will
be seasonably mild with lows in the 50s. The decaying shortwave
trough remains over the eastern portion of the area on Monday,
while 500mb height rises begin as an upper level ridge
approaches from the central Great Lakes by Monday afternoon.
Model guidance is showing some modest instability and mid level
moisture remaining over the area Monday afternoon...therefore
cannot rule out a stray, pop up shower or t`storm....mainly over
the favored terrain locations where orographic lift will be
maximized. Otherwise, the forecast is trending partly sunny and
warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Aforementioned upper level ridge is progged to settle overhead
Monday night, Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will keep the
atmosphere well capped and bring a period of dry, warm weather
to the area. Dew points and therefore humidity levels remain on
the low side (sfc dew points in the mid-50s to around 60 Tuesday
afternoon). Expected overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s
both nights, with well above average readings Tuesday
afternoon...reaching the low to mid-80s...with some upper 80s in
the urban valley locations expected. This is around 10, to as
much as 15 degrees above average for early June. Did go a few
degrees higher than the NBM guidance, expected plenty of sunshine
and the above mentioned dry air mass to boost daytime highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM Update

This period starts off with some flatter upper level ridging
still over the region on Wednesday. The return flow turns
south-southeasterly off the Atlantic as the surface high slides
east of Long Island. This may also bring in a marine layer of
clouds and early morning fog/stratus to parts of the area. This
marine modified air mass also has the capabilities to eliminate
atmospheric instability. However, the exact details of
where/when the potential marine layer will set up remain
uncertain this far out in time. As the next upper level
low/trough slowly approaches from the Great Lakes region, there
will be a slight chance to chance for afternoon showers and/or
t`storm to develop; especially for western and southern portions
of the forecast area. High temperatures are a touch lower than
Tuesday, but still in the mid-70s to lower 80s.

The weather pattern then turns much more active for Thursday,
Friday and heading into the first part of next weekend. A broad,
expansive upper level low and trough spin slowly eastward over
the region during this timeframe. The first front arrives late
Wednesday night into Thursday, likely bringing showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area. Overall, instability is not looking
to high at this extended timeframe...however wind shear and low
level moisture levels look to increase markedly. The upper
level low continues to spin over, or just to the north Friday
into next Saturday. This will keep increasing clouds and chances
for showers in the forecast. Temperatures will see a cooling
trend back into the upper 60s and 70s for highs Thursday through
Saturday; with overnight lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the period at all terminals
with high pressure in place. Scattered high clouds are expected
this evening and overnight. Otherwise, skies will be mainly
clear for most of the today.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR conditions.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL/ES