210
FXUS61 KBGM 021725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today across
a majority of the region. The first half of the week will warmer and
mostly quiet but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
be possible. Shower chances increase midweek as the next system
approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
945 AM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and only made some minor
changes to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.

615 AM Update...

For this update, there were some minor changes to PoPs to be
within better collaboration of some neighboring offices. The
main area of focus western portions of the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes. Some of the 06z guidance came in with showers
lingering there longer than originally forecasted. Some of the
updated guidance also maintain showers into far eastern
portions of our CWA before fizzling out. It was decided to not
increase PoPs further east quite yet as coverage still looks
more isolated by then.

330 AM Update...

The quiet conditions will come to an end today as high pressure
moves east out of the region and a shortwave trough moves in from
the west. Drier conditions will hold on through the morning and
early afternoon hours, especially as precipitation struggles to
overcome the dry air initially. Eventually, scattered showers will
develop by mid-afternoon across CNY and portions of the Northern
Tier of PA. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. MLCAPE
values will be less than 300 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear is around 20
kts, so strong storms are not expected. NAM guidance has higher
instability but given the increasing sky cover through the morning
hours, conditions should not become too unstable. Temperatures today
will max out in the 70s with a few valley locations near 80. With
decreasing heights, increasing cloud cover, and showers moving in,
today`s forecasted temperatures were lowered below most guidance
using a blend of the NBM, NBM tenth percentile, NAM, and Conshort.
As rain moves in, temperatures will also likely begin to cool prior
to sunset.

Overnight, thunderstorm chances diminish but showers continue. The
Catskills and NEPA will have the best chance for showers, though
isolated showers will be possible up into the Southern Tier.
While model soundings do not show much for an inversion tonight,
patchy fog will be possible. Low-level moisture will remain
present, the ground will be wet, and winds will be light which
all combined should help aid in the development of patchy,
valley fog or at least low stratus. Temperatures tonight will
remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but weak waves
look to kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Model
guidance are showing more instability compared to today but
shear will still be weak. There is some uncertainty where
showers will pop up but this forecast favored short-range
guidance for PoPs, which is mainly limited to NEPA and far
western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.
Most of CNY will stay dry and will see mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week as the ridge
builds in. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM Update

This period starts off with mainly quiet, dry and warm weather
Monday night and Tuesday under mid/upper level ridging. With
just enough moisture and instability around, cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures will be summerlike, with lows in the mid-50s to low
60s and daytime highs well into the 80s.

The pattern then turns slightly more active, with model guidance
showing some potential for weak waves to roll through Tuesday
night and Wednesday. These weak shortwaves could initiate a few
scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms...with chances
increasing especially Wednesday afternoon/evening. Wednesday
will be about 3-5 degrees cooler than Tuesday; with more clouds
and moisture around. Latest guidance is speeding up the next,
more significant frontal boundary. Updated the forecast to bring
likely showers and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night
with this frontal system. Overnight lows will be in the upper
50s to mid-60, which will feel a bit muggy. Dew points and PWATS
rise overnight, reaching the low to mid-60s and around 1.75
inches, respectively. WPC is indicating a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall in this period, and this will be something to
watch as we get closer in time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
435 AM Update

A complex and active forecast in the long term period as a
large, slow moving, closed off upper level low slowly slides
eastward over the region.

After some lingering morning rain and t`storms, the latest
guidance is hinting at a brief dry slot sometime on
Thursday...exact timing remains uncertain this far out. However,
as this brief dry slot moves in, skies could partially clear and
the NBM guidance is indicating temperatures will rise into the
upper 70s to lower 80s. As the upper level low approaches,
things look to quickly destabilize in the afternoon with
numerous showers and t`storms developing once again.

Heading into Friday, Saturday and Sunday the upper level low
continues to spin nearby (ECMWF) or nearly overhead (GFS).
Details remain uncertain in regards to the exact position and
timing of this upper level low this far out in time. However,
this weather pattern certainty will keep things partly to mostly
clouds with periods of showers and even a few thunderstorms
around. There will of course be some drier periods as well,
especially at night as the daytime heating driven instability
decreases. In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided
to lower PoPs below what NBM was suggesting (likely) and into
the high chance, or scattered category for these three
days...again due to uncertainty in how this will all play out.
Temperatures are steady, with daytime highs in the upper 60s to
mid-70s all three days and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected at most terminals until late
tonight/ early Monday morning. A weak system will bring light showers
to the region this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too
low to place showers on station at any one terminal. The best
chances for any rain showers will be at ELM, BGM, ITH, and SYR,
but even if these sites see showers, there are no restrictions
expected since showers will be fairly light. As showers move
out of these terminals after 00z tonight, conditions will become
favorable for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance
was favoring ELM, BGM, and ITH with restrictions, but only put
visibility restrictions at ELM as the highest confidence is fog
will occur there. There is a bit more uncertainty at BGM and
ITH, so only brought in MVFR ceilings for now and will take
another look when 0Z TAFs are due. Any fog that develops will
likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could be some
lingering low ceilings.



Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers
during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions
Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK