307
FXUS61 KBGM 181652
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1252 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild
weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend
for most of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
828 AM update...
Increased expected cloud cover through the morning hours and
also added some slight chances for rain over northeast PA today
given the recent trends on the radar and observations of light
rain as well. So significant changes made to the overall quiet
weather expected in the near term.

240 AM Update:

High pressure will remain in control over most of the area
today and Thursday. There is a small chance for a few isolated
showers to graze our far southern counties in NE PA tonight
through Thursday morning, but the majority of the area will
remain dry. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic
Coastline will track out to sea tonight. This system will likely
only spread high clouds across most of our area, other than
that small chance for a few showers across the far south.
Temperatures will remain warm today and tomorrow with highs in
the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update...

Light rain showers from a disorganized coastal low will push up
into NE PA, starting earlier in the day Thursday, and lasting
through Friday night. These showers will be of light intensity,
with amounts up to a tenth of an inch through Friday night. All
other areas will likely stay dry, but a stray shower could pass
over areas from Binghamton eastward along the Southern Tier.
Friday high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
305 AM Update...

High pressure will build into the area over the weekend,
providing dry conditions Saturday through Monday. High
temperatures expected in the low to uppers 70s Saturday, and
cool down to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday. At the
very end of the long term period, model guidance shows some sort
of disorganized feature pushing in from the west. As of now,
there are chances for rain showers beginning next Monday
evening, but confidence in timing is low, since models vary
greatly. We`ll continue to monitor guidance for rain potential
over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes made to the aviation forecast for the
next 24 hours with mostly a repeat of last night/this morning.
There could be a very brief and very light rain showers at AVP
or ELM this afternoon, but confidence is low. Otherwise, expecting
VFR conditions to persist through the period with widespread
high clouds today, thinning out tonight with another round of
valley fog that should impact ELM with IFR or worse conditions
through 13Z Thursday. Winds will remain light and variable.

.Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog
possible at ELM during the early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJT/MPK