Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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550 FXUS61 KBGM 141812 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 212 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. Next week will be hot and humid. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 1230 PM UPDATE... The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Beyond this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. Showers in NEPA and the western Catskills don`t have much to work with. The showers remain low topped and mostly light. The initial trough should slow. The best chance of thunderstorms remain in NEPA and Sullivan County PA. In CNY convection could be isolated at best. Lowered pops and dewpoints here. 930 am update... Update to the hourly temperatures which are cooler with a band of clouds across the area with a prefrontal surface trough. Some showers are ahead of this. The cold front is still north of our area over Lake Ontario. Ahead of this is some clearing which will help to create some instability. Still expecting convection to develop midday across the twin tiers. This will strengthen as it moves southeast into a moister air mass. Cams are not excited. 330 AM Update... A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain showers and chances for strong to severe storms. As this front moves through our area, chances for showers and storms begin in Central NY between late morning and early afternoon, and will move south and east through the day. Guidance has been progressing and pushing the best chances for developing severe storms more south and east, where NE PA and the Catskills will be the most likely locations to see possible severe storm development in the late afternoon and into the evening hours, with the main threat bring strong to damaging winds. Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front that will be passing through today. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 210 PM Update: High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny on Sunday. With the building ridge still located west of the region, one last day with temperatures near-normal is expected before the heat builds in for the remainder of the week. Highs are expected to be in the lower 70s to near 80. Then mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. These will be the coolest lows our region will have for the remainder of the week. A strengthening ridge moves overhead on Monday, which will bring much warmer temperatures. Widespread highs in the 80s are expected, with lower 90s in the valleys. Dew points will be on the rise too (into the 60s). Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected, although cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes Region in the afternoon. Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s is expected Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 210 PM Update: In terms of precipitation, the long term period will be fairly quiet. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out each day due to daytime heating, but with the ridge dominating, any organized shower or thunderstorm activity is very unlikely. By the end of the week (Friday), a shortwave riding along the edge of the ridge may bring some more organized shower and thunderstorm activity, although even this is far from a certainty. The main story for the long term period will be the prolonged heat. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s (and even some upper 90s) is expected each day Tuesday through Friday. Dew points will also be quite high; mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will result in heat indices well into the 90s, and likely exceeding 100 degrees in the valleys. Heat headlines will likely be needed as we get closer. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As a cold front moves through today, guidance is showing more and more of a south and eastward trend for storm initiation. There`ll be a few scattered rain showers this morning through the early afternoon before storm begin to initiate after 18Z. The difficultly with this forecast is how far south and east will these storms pop up. We`ve included the possibility of vicinity storms after 18Z through 00Z for the majority of terminals since they all have a chance for storms in the afternoon, with RME and SYR having the least likely chance of seeing a storm. We`ll continue to monitor throughout the morning. Outlook... Friday night...Ceilings becoming VFR. Areas of dense valley fog restrictions possible late. Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR. Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC NEAR TERM...KL/TAC SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...KL/TAC