Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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869 FXUS63 KBIS 270808 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s. - Generally dry conditions and warming temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. - Later Wednesday through the end of the workweek, chances for showers and thunderstorms return with temperatures remaining near to slightly above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Upper low pressure is present over northeastern Manitoba/northwestern Ontario. This will move off to the east today as it merges with an upper low currently situated over the Great Lakes Region. In the process, another shortwave off the west side of the low will drive down through the forecast area. This will help generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon that will taper off from northwest to southeast during evening and early overnight hours. Trailing upper ridge will slide across the Northern Plains Tuesday through Wednesday. This will provide a brief break from the active pattern. At the surface, the forecast area will be sandwiched between high pressure in the east and low pressure in the west on Wednesday. This will generate breezy southerly winds over at least the western half of the state. The result being the warmest temperatures of the workweek. Even so, temperatures won`t be overly warm and are forecast to range from near average in the east to seasonably warm in the west. The break in the active pattern will likely be short-lived as the next upper low slides across southern Canada and drives a stronger trough through the region starting Wednesday evening. A little severe weather in the west isn`t entirely out of the question later Wednesday as deterministic models suggest a narrow window of 30 kt or greater 0 to 6 km bulk shear with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This is supported by CSU machine learning which would bring a slight risk into the far southwest, as well as SPC which has a marginal risk for the far west. Whether severe weather occurs or not will be highly dependent on the timing of the wave and whether it reaches western ND before the loss of the best instability. Shower and thunderstorm chances will then persist through the day Thursday. At this time, the severe threat Thursday looks low with perhaps slightly higher shear, but far less instability. Though of course, this can definitely change from now between then. An additional shortwave or two off the same upper low will produce continued precipitation chances through Friday and possibly into the weekend. Overall temperatures through the week look seasonable with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. Meanwhile, lows look to drop into the 40s to low 50s most nights. Ensembles suggest a warming trend is then favored towards the very end of the period, or rather, early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Patchy fog has developed in central ND especially in the James River Valley. Fog may be fairly shallow in nature, although it is difficult to gauge at this time of night. Still, MVFR/IFR visibility is expected at times through the night mainly impacting the KJMS terminal. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Monday afternoon. Any showers or thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility, as well as erratic winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken