630
FXUS63 KBIS 230530
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain showers (20 to 40 percent) on Monday, with
  chances pushing east Monday night.

- Gradual warming trend Tuesday through Thursday, with dry
  weather forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Quiet weather continues over western and central North Dakota.
The aforementioned upper level cloud deck has all but blanketed
the forecast area by this update. Otherwise, winds remain
generally light from 5 to 10 mph and out of the south. No major
updates were required, as the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upper level clouds continue to increase across the area. All
forecast elements remain on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The forecast for tonight remains on track. Upper level clouds
will expand across western and central North Dakota tonight,
ahead of a developing mid level wave now crossing the Canadian
Rockies. This feature will bring a chance of showers to the
local area during the day Monday as it interacts with an
eastward moving frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current surface analysis places high pressure from the lee of
the Central Rockies northeastward through the Red River Valley
of the North. Trough noted to the lee of the Northern Rockies.
Upper level analysis places west-northwest flow over our area
with a modest trough noted over the Canadian Rockies. A few
weak waves moving through the flow over our area are resulting
in a few clouds over our northeast, otherwise high clouds
continue to move along with the upper level flow.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, quiet weather will
continue into this evening, but clouds will start to be on the
increase, especially as we get later in the night, as the
aforementioned upper trough over the Canadian Rockies progresses
east and deepens as it pushes into the Plains.

On Monday, trough continues to push east and deepen as it pushes
over the Dakotas. This will result in some showers developing
and passing over the area through the day. For now have kept
chances modest (20-40 percent), but have gone higher than
current NBM which just started picking up on the chances, while
CAMs seem to be more aggressive. Wave gradually departs in the
evening with chances diminishing from west to east.

Pacific ridge then gradually makes its way east through mid-
week, resulting in a warming trend and quiet weather. By
Thursday, many locations should be well into the 80s, with NBM
seeming quite consistent and not showing much of a spread.
Ridge axis passes east going into the weekend, but systems
passing through the flow appear to hold to the north at this
point. Therefore, will continue dry forecast with seasonably
mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Generally VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all
terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Later this morning, a
band of showers and mid level clouds will move in from the west
along a weak cold front, sweeping across North Dakota through
the afternoon and evening hours. These showers are anticipated
to be fairly light, with no visibility reductions expected at
this time. Showers will generally clear from west to east Monday
evening. Winds are generally light and out of the south, but
will turn to the northwest while strengthening to 10 to 15 knots
and gusts up to 25 knots as the cold front moves in during the
late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then diminish and
become west northwesterly through the evening and then end of
the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/NH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Adam