354
FXUS63 KBIS 070008
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
708 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak wave will bring chances (20 to 40%) for showers to the
  central and James River Valley areas on Friday. An isolated
  thunderstorm is possible in the south central and southern
  James River Valley in the afternoon and evening.

- After a drier weekend, chances (20 to 40%) for showers and
  thunderstorms return to western and central North Dakota on
  Monday and Tuesday.

- A warming trend is then expected to begin through the rest of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Windy conditions persist in a few locations, although most areas
have dropped below advisory criteria. In addition, winds will
continue to rapidly diminish this evening. Therefore, have
allowed the Wind Advisory to expire. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies are present and the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

At the moment, North Dakota sits under northwesterly upper level
flow, with a large trough digging across the Great Lakes to the
east, and a very broad ridge positioned across the western CONUS.
With lower surface pressure to the east, and higher pressure to the
west, a somewhat strong pressure gradient oriented northwest to
southeast also sits across the entire state, helping bring about
some rather strong northwesterly winds to much of western and
central North Dakota. Earlier model soundings suggested the
potential for 40 to 50 kt winds atop the mixed layer paired with
inverted-V profiles, which seems to have nearly entirely
transitioned these winds to the ground at this point. Many reports
of sustained northwesterly wind speeds in the mid to upper 30 mph
range have been reported today, with some gusts approaching 50 mph,
exceeding 50 mph in isolated instances. As such, we`ve continued our
Wind Advisory, which goes until 7 PM CDT tonight, when winds are
expected to decrease around sunset. There have also been some
reports of these winds kicking up dust, most notably across the
southern James River Valley, which could potentially reduce
visibilities to a half mile at times. We`ve added in some patchy
blowing dust to the forecast in this area as well, until the Wind
Advisory ends. While wind speeds are approaching warning criteria,
they`ve largely remained below, so we will continue with a Wind
Advisory at this time. Otherwise, generally clear skies are
expected, with some fair weather cumulus across the central and
James River Valley areas through the daytime hours. Highs today are
largely in the 70s, with overnight lows tonight in the 40s.

Heading into Friday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to flatten
out somewhat, as a quick moving shortwave trough drops southeast
through the area. Due to the transient nature of this wave, chances
for precipitation (mostly 20 to 40%) moves through the area from the
northwest corner to the southern James River Valley essentially
through the daytime hours. A small corridor of modest instability
and buoyancy across the south central may bring about some
thunderstorms for a few hours in the evening, though the chance for
these becoming severe is near 0. Otherwise, highs on Friday are
expected to range from the mid 60s in the north to the upper 70s in
the south. Some areas in the far south may see temperatures climb
into the 80s. Overnight lows are expected to remain largely in the
40s.

Through the weekend, the upper level pattern does not change very
much, and as such, the conditions across our area will be rather
similar Saturday through Monday morning. With a trough positioned to
our north, slowly descending south through Saskatchewan and
Manitoba, we remain under northwesterly upper level flow. Northern
portions of our area may see occasional sprinkles or showers, but
for the most part, we are expecting drier conditions, with highs
consistently in the upper 60s to mid 70s during this time. A relaxed
surface pressure gradient will help keep winds reduced as well. All
in all, it seems like it will be a rather quiet period of weather
through Monday morning.

Our next decent chances for precipitation arrives Monday through
Tuesday, as the aforementioned upper level low descends south into
the northern Great Plains. With ample forcing associated with this
wave, we may see a large swath of 20 to 40% chances for showers and
thunderstorms sweep across the state from west to east during this
time. Tentatively, long range guidance suggests the potential for
some strong storms associated with this wave, however confidence
remains rather low. The confidence in this upper level setup in
general is somewhat low as well, as the spread in NBM high
temperatures also increases during this time.

Following this precipitation, long range guidance suggests broad
ridging across the western CONUS, building into the Plains and
sitting there through the remainder of the week. As such, a warming
trend is currently forecast, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to
mid 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned before, the NBM
spreads in high temperatures are somewhat large, so the confidence
in the pattern progressing like this is still not set in stone, but
in general, we can anticipate warmer temperatures and drier
conditions through the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds will continue to rapidly diminish over the next couple to
few hours. A trough will then bring showers to northwestern ND
early Friday morning. These showers will gradually work
southeastward through the day. A thunderstorm or two is possible
in the south central in the afternoon. Other than where any
showers or thunderstorms develop, VFR ceilings and visibility
are expected through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Telken