Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
651
FNUS73 KBIS 140843
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Audubon 16-21...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on June 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies are anticipated at the time of ignition, along with
temperatures around 50 degrees and relative humidities around 90
percent. Highs today are forecast in the lower 80s, while the
minimum relative humidity is expected to be in the upper 30
percent range. Cloud cover will increase through the late morning
and afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy as chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase for the late afternoon and evening. Winds
will generally be light and out of the south at the time of
ignition, but will strengthen to around 10 to 15 MPH and turn
southeasterly through the day. Due to the proximity of the
ignition site to the Lake Audubon, the light winds in the morning
may become erratic as they interact with north-northwesterly lake
winds. Gusty and erratic winds are also expected where showers and
thunderstorms do develop in the late afternoon and evening.
Slight chances for showers will continue overnight, with winds
becoming southerly by mid Saturday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through much
of the day Saturday, with isolated strong to severe storms possible
through the evening and overnight into Sunday as a cold front
passes across the ignition site. Expected hazards with any
stronger storms would be large hail, strong winds, and the
potential for an isolated tornado. Otherwise, increasing clouds
and southerly winds from 5 to 10 mph are expected. The forecast
high temperature on Saturday is around 85, and the minimum
relative humidity is in the lower 50 percent range.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny becoming mostly cloudy by the evening.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
late afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2 until 1700, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 13 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph in the late morning and
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph shifting to the southeast 17
to 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (89400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2 2 3 6 7 11 25 46 53 61 64
Weather cov..... SCH CHC
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3
Temp............53 58 63 68 71 73 75 76 77 78 77
RH..............86 77 67 57 49 44 41 40 40 39 42
20 FT wind dir..S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..2 2 4 5 7 9 9 11 12 13 13
20 FT wind gust.5 6 7 10 12 14 15 17 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.0 4.7
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SE S S SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.7 6 7 9 12 13 14 17 20 21 21
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4 3 6 17 34 43 55 71 87 89 84
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms early in the evening, then slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 18 percent in the
evening, then decreasing to 0 percent
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2200, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (59300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (8400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67 70 67 68 75 73 70 61 58 57 54 51
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).40 50 40 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............76 74 72 69 66 66 65 64 63 63 63 62
RH..............46 51 57 68 75 75 75 78 81 81 81 84
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S SE S
20 FT wind spd..13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10
20 FT wind gust.20 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 20 19 18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
Transp wind spd.22 20 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 18 16 15
Haines index....4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 2
Dispr kt-ft/1K..59 38 22 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 8
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming cloudy. Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the morning,
with increasing chances through the afternoon
and overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (45300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........51 45 49 60
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 40
LAL.............2 2 2 3
Temp............62 68 75 79
RH..............87 78 66 58
20 FT wind......SE 10G17 S 9G14 S 9G14 S 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1400 2700 3300
Transport wind..S 15 S 15 S 15 S 15
Haines index....2 2 2 2
Dispr kt-ft/1K..9 19 36 43
$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Lennie Houle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416108.0/BIS
.DELDT 06/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lennie_houle@fws.gov