453
FXUS64 KBMX 221716
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper-air features relevant to our forecast include a trough
extending from the central Plains to the Desert Southwest, and
ridge centered near the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Anticylonic flow
associated with the ridge should continue to suppress diurnal
convection across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will once
again top out in the lower 90s for most locations. Signs of a
pattern change are evident for Monday as the trough and ridge
shift eastward. Height falls should begin over North Alabama,
but stronger 500 mb will remain well to the north. As the ridge
relents, isolated convection appears possible just north of our
counties that border WFO Huntsville.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep
conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night.
By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough
moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front
onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets
here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It
could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the
main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up
being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures.

However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more
substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth
region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models
start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing,
placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether
or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have
direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in
central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to
keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model,
which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open
(in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next
weekend.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning. Expect
scattered cumulus developing over the area this afternoon with
low-level winds from the northwest at 3-6 kts. A shower or two
will be possible across the far north/northeast this afternoon and
evening but chances are quite low. Overnight, expect some
scattered clouds north with near calm winds. There will be
potential for some limited reductions to visibility before sunrise
Monday across portions of the north and northwest areas.
Scattered clouds are expected on Monday with isolated showers
across the north toward late morning with scattered clouds south
and broken clouds north. Winds will be from the northwest at 2-4
kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain near zero through Monday as high
pressure prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry
airmass in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 50
percent through Monday. 20 foot winds will be westerly or variable
at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  91  69  90 /  10  20   0  10
Anniston    68  91  70  90 /   0  20   0  10
Birmingham  70  91  73  91 /   0  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  69  93  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
Calera      69  92  73  91 /   0  10   0  10
Auburn      69  92  73  90 /   0  10   0  10
Montgomery  69  94  73  93 /   0  10   0   0
Troy        68  93  70  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05