Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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149 FXUS64 KBMX 230559 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1259 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 107 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024 A couple rounds of thunderstorms will pass within close proximity to the northwestern portions of Central Alabama over the next 24 hours as a northeast to southwest oriented cold front slowly drifts towards the Mid-South region. The mid-level ridge axis has shifted east of the area allowing low-level flow to take on more of a south to southwesterly heading. Deeper moisture still resides to our west, so our dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon and again tomorrow while lower 70s dewpoints are forecast over northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley. The first wave of thunderstorms will likely follow the more favorable instability gradient as it moves along the frontal zone, staying north of the forecast area and moving from Mississippi into northern Alabama this afternoon. A second wave will have improved upper-level support overnight as a shortwave begins to pass across the area. Some weakening thunderstorms will move in across the northwest around midnight, but QPF amounts look minimal. Same story on Thursday as the front remains well to our north. Most of the activity will remain north of Central Alabama during the day, and any isolated shower or storm is not expected to be strong as a result of limited forcing and instability. Expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024 North Alabama will be on the southern periphery of an active westerly flow pattern through the weekend, and kept rain chances mostly in the 30-50 percent range. A significant short wave trough will track from the Midwest States and into the Great Lakes region Sunday and Monday. A severe weather outbreak is likely across Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky Sunday and into Sunday night, but unclear how far southward severe storms will develop, so not enough confidence to mention severe at this time for Central Alabama. Clearing and cooler conditions on Tuesday. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2024 High pressure remains over the area with generally high clouds through 15z. After that VFR conditions will continue, although some low to mid-level clouds, 4 to 7 kft, will develop across the area. Pretty much keep any measurable rain outside of TAF locations until outside of this cycle. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 5 to 10 kts by late morning and through the afternoon. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep most of the rain confined to the far northern portions of Alabama through Friday morning, with a good chance of rain across the north through Friday night. 20 foot winds will be from the south at less than 5 mph at night and 4-7 mph during the day. Min RH this afternoon 40-45 percent and 45-60 percent on Friday. Max RH levels tonight will be above 90 percent. Even better chances for rain expected over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 65 85 65 / 20 30 70 30 Anniston 88 68 87 68 / 10 20 60 30 Birmingham 89 69 88 69 / 10 20 60 30 Tuscaloosa 89 70 89 70 / 10 20 40 20 Calera 88 69 87 70 / 10 20 50 20 Auburn 87 68 87 70 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 90 69 90 71 / 0 10 20 10 Troy 89 67 90 70 / 0 0 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...16