382
FXUS64 KBMX 160823
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

An upper ridge will continue shifting eastward across the
southeastern United States today. Southeasterly flow will be in
place over Alabama around the southwestern periphery of the ridge.
Highs this afternoon should rival yesterday, although likely a
degree or two cooler this afternoon. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase this afternoon, with best
chances in the southern counties and in the northeastern
counties. Storm motion will be predominantly southeast to
northwest, although potential outflow boundaries are likely to
affect storm motion on a localized scale. Activity will linger
into the evening hours before dissipating overnight.

After another night of lows in the low to mid 70s, highs Monday
will reach only to low to mid 90s. Shower and storm activity is
likely again Monday afternoon, with greatest chances west of I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

A highly anomalous and potentially unprecedented deep-layer ridge
to our east, will expand on Tuesday, with its center shifting
from North Carolina to near New York City. As the ridge remains
nearly stationary through Thursday, 500 mb heights may reach an
incredible 600 dam. At the southern periphery of the ridge, drier
air circulating around the ridge will move into Alabama from the
east. PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches on Tuesday and
persist through Thursday. The easterly flow from the Atlantic
should serve to moderate temperatures as well. NBM temperatures
are well above MEX guidance through the long term period, which
does not seem reasonable given reduced 850 mb temperatures and
low-level thickness values. Therefore, this update undercuts NBM
by 2 to 5 degrees for afternoon highs and 1 to 3 degrees for
morning lows, for Tuesday through Saturday.

A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach
our eastern counties on Friday. This may bring an increase in rain
chances that could continue into Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity ongoing near ANB at this hour
should move away within the next hour. Otherwise a calm night. Vis
may dip to MVFR around daybreak at sites that received rainfall
this past evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist Sunday.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms again Sunday
afternoon, but coverage is too uncertain to mention at this time.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across
much of the area, although spatial coverage looks to be somewhat
limited. 20-foot winds will be southeasterly up to 6-8 mph each
day through Tuesday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected
to drop into the 35-45 percent range Sunday and remain above 40
percent on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  69  94  69 /  30  10  20  10
Anniston    95  71  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
Birmingham  96  73  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  96  73  91  72 /  20  20  40  10
Calera      96  73  93  71 /  20  10  20  10
Auburn      94  72  92  70 /  20  10  20   0
Montgomery  96  73  94  72 /  30  20  30  10
Troy        94  71  93  69 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...12