864
FXUS64 KBMX 160528
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1228 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

A small scale boundary has moved westward out of Georgia this
evening. This outflow has produced thunderstorms that are moving
into Lee, Chambers, and Randolph Counties. These storms will
continue west with additional outflows potentially adding to
storm redevelopment. Instability is limited but not all areas had
storms earlier. Additionally, the moisture axis is still present.
Will add pops through 1 am based on radar.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 723 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

A moisture and instability gradient was present over Central
Alabama. The axis was roughly east to west from near I-20 east,
then due west from Birmingham to the Mississippi state line. A few
storms were ignited mainly due to heating of the day. Thereafter,
the outflows propagated outward and initiated additional storms.
The isolated to scattered activity will diminish rather quickly
the next few hours. Due to the moisture content, any storms that
develop may drop a heavy downpour in a short period of time.
Overnight, the showers will diminish and the clouds will slowly
decrease. Outside of these areas, mostly clear conditions will
continue. Lows will generally be in the 70s.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

Sunday.

Mid to upper level ridging will become positioned overhead while
a lingering weak disturbance looks to continue to advance
northwest with time on Sunday. The surface front will stall over
the area and begin lifting northward as warm front into Sunday
while the surface trough moves northwest with time. These
features, along with any outflow boundaries from convection today,
will provide more support for surface convergence and result in
slightly higher potential for showers and some thunderstorms that
would be most likely to develop in the heat of the day. Winds will
be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range
from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid to
upper 90s elsewhere.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

Long term forecast is on track this afternoon, with only minor
adjustments to pops.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

A deep-layer ridge will be centered over North Carolina on Monday,
opening the door to south-southeast flow in the 850-500 mb layer
across Alabama. This will lead to a significant increase in PWAT
values over the western third of our state. A moisture gradient
from west to east will correspond with POPs ranging from 50
percent along the AL/MS state line to 20 percent on our eastern
border. The ridge axis will swing back to the west on Tuesday, and
as flow becomes more easterly, PWAT values should drop below 1.5
inches across most of the area. Accordingly, any showers and
thunderstorms should be isolated in nature and confined to our
western counties.

A large area of subsidence and below normal moisture content will
persist across the region for Wednesday and Thursday with no rain
expected. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could
begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday along with a slight
increase in rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity ongoing near ANB at this hour
should move away within the next hour. Otherwise a calm night. Vis
may dip to MVFR around daybreak at sites that received rainfall
this past evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist Sunday.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms again Sunday
afternoon, but coverage is too uncertain to mention at this time.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few showers or storms are possible this evening, with dry
conditions overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although coverage still
looks to be fairly limited. 20- foot winds will be light and
variable through Sunday morning, becoming southeasterly up to 6-8
mph through Monday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected
to drop into the 35-45 percent Sunday, and remain above 40 percent
on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  70  92  71 /  30  10  20  10
Anniston    95  72  92  71 /  20  10  20  10
Birmingham  98  74  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
Tuscaloosa  98  75  90  73 /  20  10  40  10
Calera      97  74  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
Auburn      95  74  90  71 /  20  10  20  10
Montgomery  97  74  91  73 /  30  20  30  10
Troy        95  72  91  72 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12