628
FXUS64 KBMX 161753
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

Mostly rain-free conditions are ongoing across much of Central
Alabama today, thanks to some drier air advecting in from the
northeast both at the surface and at the mid-levels of the
atmosphere. Mostly sunny skies aside from some scattered cu is
being observed across eastern and northeastern counties, where
highs today should be able to reach into the mid 80s. Meanwhile,
the remnant low of what`s left of Francine continues to slowly
move westward across Louisiana. A narrow corridor of showers
continues to persist thanks to some lingering isentropic lift
across Sumter and Marengo Counties this afternoon, along with
broken mid-level clouds present across the southwestern half of
Central Alabama. As drier air continues to filter into the region,
clouds are expected to gradually decrease by this afternoon and
evening, with rain chances also coming to an end. Highs are
currently on track for the most part, but have been raised a few
degrees where clouds have dissipated a bit earlier than expected.
Highs should reach close to 80 degrees in the far southwest
counties with mid to upper 80s expected elsewhere.

Clouds are expected to mostly clear out overnight tonight, with
temperatures dropping down into 60s areawide. As the temperatures
drop toward the dewpoint with moist ground conditions and mostly calm
winds, patchy fog will likely form during the early morning
hours on Tuesday. There are still some uncertainties in terms of
how low visibilities may get, but guidance trends are indicating
that the boundary layer will likely decouple. We`ve added in at
least patchy fog to the forecast to trend in that direction, and
that may need to be updated as we go into the evening hours.

Going into the day on Tuesday, an overall weakness in the 500mb
pattern will emerge over much of the region, stretching from the
central Gulf Coast northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states. The
potential tropical cyclone located just off the South Carolina
coast will move inland to the northwest and become cut off from
the main upper level flow. As the center of the low moves over the
heart of the Smoky Mountains, we`ll stay on the dry southwest side
of the system. The only mention of PoPs will be across the
extreme southern counties as as warm front tries to lift northward
from the Gulf Coast. The front should eventually stall across
southern Alabama as it encounters northerly to northwesterly
surface flow on the west side of the closed low over the Smokies.
Dewpoints should be fairly comfortable with the northerly flow
Tuesday afternoon in the 60s and even upper 50s across the far
northeast counties. High temperatures with plenty of sunshine
should top out in the mid to upper 80s areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

A frontal boundary will push southward through Central AL Tuesday
night through Wednesday as the remnants of the potential tropical
cyclone become absorbed with the deeper trough across the Eastern
US. The boundary could lead to some lower rain chances across our
southernmost counties Wednesday afternoon, but most of the
rain/thunderstorm activity should remain to our south.

A blocking pattern persists Thursday through the end of the week
with little meaningful change in our sensible weather. Synoptically,
guidance suggests the trough over the Eastern US develops into a cut-
off upper level low and may retrograde southwestward over the
Coastal Carolinas. If this takes place, we could have a weak
backdoor cold front push east to west across Central AL next
weekend. Effectively, however, this really only leads to daytime
highs going from the upper 80s Wed through Friday to the upper 70s
to mid 80s by Sunday. The drier air mass in place with the northerly
flow should keep rain chances very low (no mention of measurable
rainfall in the forecast) through the weekend.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

Mostly VFR conditions aside from higher-end MVFR ceilings can be
expected through the afternoon across the terminals. Easterly
winds will continue, prevailing around 10 knots with a few gusts
over 15 knots through 21z. Clouds are expected to gradually
decrease by this evening with mostly clear skies in the forecast.
We`ll be watching for the potential for fog development overnight
tonight with clear skies and calm winds. We`ve gone ahead and
added in a TEMPO for reduced vis between 09z and 12z Tuesday
morning for a few terminals, and we`ll need to monitor the latest
guidance and observation trends during the evening for potential
TAF amendments. VFR conditions can be expected through 18z
Tuesday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Lower rain chances will persist across the southern and southwestern
portions of Central AL today through Tuesday. Drier conditions with
northerly flow is expected for the second half of the week. Min RHs
will remain generally at or above 50% through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    84  62  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  85  64  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  65  87  63 /  30  10   0   0
Calera      85  65  87  65 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      82  64  85  66 /  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  82  66  87  67 /  20  10  10   0
Troy        83  65  85  67 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...56/GDG