970
FXUS64 KBMX 161130
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
630 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

A broad area of lower heights resides over the southeastern CONUS
this morning, as the remnant low of Francine continues to spin
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a potential tropical
cyclone spins just off the South Carolina coast. By Tuesday, the
remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the stronger cyclone,
moving westward toward the southern Appalachians. Drier air will
wrap around the north and west side of the system off the SC coast
today, advecting into northeastern Central Alabama.

The persistent fetch of moisture and convergence axis over the
area will continue to shift southwestward today, with scattered
showers being limited to portions of the west and south. Drier
conditions expected tonight, with mostly clear skies. If boundary
layer winds trend lower, will need to consider fog tonight, given
saturated ground conditions. For Tuesday, sunny skies and drier
conditions expected for most of the area. As the moisture axis
becomes oriented west to east across south Alabama, cannot rule
out a couple showers across far southern areas.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

A frontal boundary will push southward through Central AL Tuesday
night through Wednesday as the remnants of the potential tropical
cyclone become absorbed with the deeper trough across the Eastern
US. The boundary could lead to some lower rain chances across our
southernmost counties Wednesday afternoon, but most of the
rain/thunderstorm activity should remain to our south.

A blocking pattern persists Thursday through the end of the week
with little meaningful change in our sensible weather. Synoptically,
guidance suggests the trough over the Eastern US develops into a cut-
off upper level low and may retrograde southwestward over the
Coastal Carolinas. If this takes place, we could have a weak
backdoor cold front push east to west across Central AL next
weekend. Effectively, however, this really only leads to daytime
highs going from the upper 80s Wed through Friday to the upper 70s
to mid 80s by Sunday. The drier air mass in place with the northerly
flow should keep rain chances very low (no mention of measurable
rainfall in the forecast) through the weekend.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

VFR cigs at all forecast terminals to start the forecast period,
with easterly winds at 6-9kts, and occasional gusts to 18kts. As
a moisture axis pivots to a more west to east orientation this
morning, MVFR cigs could spread across MGM and possibly TCl for a
few hours this morning. Cannot rule out a few showers or a
thunderstorm this afternoon near TCL and MGM, but chances remain
too low to include at this time.

Winds diminish this evening, to less than 5kts, with mostly clear
skies. If winds trend lighter, fog and vis reductions might be
needed in future forecasts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Lower rain chances will persist across the southern and southwestern
portions of Central AL today through Tuesday. Drier conditions with
northerly flow is expected for the second half of the week. Min RHs
will remain generally at or above 50% through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  59  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    84  61  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  83  64  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  64  87  63 /  20  10  10   0
Calera      83  64  86  65 /  20  10  10   0
Auburn      82  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  82  65  86  66 /  20  10  20   0
Troy        81  64  84  65 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14