599
FXUS64 KBMX 272010
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
310 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

A frontal boundary will continue to move to the southeast through
the day today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
ahead of the front in the southeastern third of Central Alabama
through the afternoon and evening. Instabilities will be between
the 3000 and 3500 J/kg range, though winds will be fairly light with
shear values hovering around 30 kts in the late afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging
winds the main threat. This evening, the front will move southeast
of the area with activity diminishing shortly after sunset. Fog
development is possible in the southeast where rain sets up this
evening, though will need to monitor coverage tonight.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s in the north to the
lower 90s in the south. Though with the amount of moisture present
over the south, heat indices will be in the upper 90s. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s, a few degrees above normal for
this time of year.

Tuesday will have high pressure and mostly clear skies with
northerly flow bringing plenty of dry air to the state. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday,
though with lower PW values, the heat indices will feel like the
actually temperature.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

Long term forecast is on track this afternoon, with no significant
changes needed.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

High pressure builds in across the region Tuesday night and will
persist through much of the upcoming week. This will lead to
mostly dry conditions for Central AL with seasonably warm
temperatures. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential
for a weak shortwave sliding through the area Wednesday into
Thursday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty in that occurring, so
the forecast remains mostly dry through the period.

Our next chance for rain/storms doesn`t come in until the end of the
week and into next weekend. The ridge shifts slightly to our east,
allowing for an upper wave to dip into the Mid-south at some point,
but model guidance has gone back and forth on this feature, showing
quite a bit of variability in timing and evolution. For now, I`ve
continued to trend rain/storm chances up to 20-30% for next weekend,
but I would expect several changes to that over the next few days.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly KMGM and
KTOI this afternoon through the early evening. Right now have MVFR
visibilities to account for any activity that moves over either
TAF site, though if cells start training, visibilities could drop
quickly to IFR conditions. After sunset, most activity should move
east, with fog development possible at KMGM and KTOI. Due to
uncertainty in timing and coverage of rain this evening, left of
mention of fog for now.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms end this evening, with
winds becoming northwesterly to northerly at less than 5mph. Some
of the storms could produce damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Drier air arrives tomorrow, with min RH values in the
30-40 percent range Tuesday afternoon and 35 to 55 percent range
Wednesday afternoon, with the lowest values in the southeast.
Overnight recovery RH values will range from 75-85 percent Tuesday
night. 20ft winds remain out of the northwest through Wednesday
at 4-6mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  86  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    64  87  60  83 /  10   0   0  10
Birmingham  65  88  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  66  90  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      67  89  64  83 /  10   0   0  10
Auburn      68  88  64  84 /  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  68  90  65  87 /  20   0   0  10
Troy        68  90  64  88 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24