Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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640 FXUS64 KBMX 210217 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 917 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of Tonight) Issued at 911 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024 Updated withe the latest obs and hires guidance, but with the current E Conus surface high pressure ridge in place this did not result in any major changes. We have minimal moisture noted on satellite. Surface winds are light to near calm with the surface ridging. Temperatures are currently mild but falling and on track to our forecast lows of near 60 to the middle 60s. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2024 A large ridge over the East CONUS will support a period of warm and dry weather. The mid-level ridge axis extends from the Lower MS Valley northeast into New England producing northwest flow aloft. The surface ridge is extending down the spine of the Appalachians producing a light easterly surface wind across the area. Some weak surface convergence may kick off a shower or two in the west this afternoon where a field of cu has developed, but mostly sunny skies will be the story for the next couple of days with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Clear and mild tonight with lows in the 60s, and a small chance of some patchy fog early tomorrow morning. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024 Upper ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep rain free conditions across Central Alabama Wednesday and into Thursday. The northern edge of the ridge will begin to weaken on Friday as an upper level short wave trough tracks along the southern fringe of the westerlies. This will produce sufficient lift for scattered convection across the northern half of Alabama. Once this upper impulse slides east of Alabama, the ridge could ease back northward and result in lower rain chances on Saturday. Above normal temperatures during this period with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024 A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours with high pressure over E Conus in control of C AL weather. Minimal cloud cover is expected along with SE winds 5-8kts during the day with mixing. Otherwise, winds will be light/variable to near calm with generally unrestricted vsby. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Light 20 foot winds tonight will become southeast 4-6 mph on Tuesday. Max RH values tonight above 90 percent. Min RH values Tuesday and Wednesday 40-50 percent. Next chance for wetting rain Thursday night across the northwest, with a better chances area- wide on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 61 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 64 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 63 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 62 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 62 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08/86/Martin LONG TERM....58/rose AVIATION...08