160
FXUS64 KBMX 040636
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
136 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 711 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over Central Alabama
early this evening. These storms were forming mainly due to small
scale boundary interactions. Brief gusty winds or small hail is
possible in the strongest storms. Otherwise, would expect a
downward trend in the storm coverage from 8pm-4am. A thunderstorm
line was located in far eastern Arkansas into Louisiana. This
activity will continue eastward overnight. How much convection is
still present along the line late tonight is still in question.
But this boundary will approach west and northwest areas near the
Mississippi state line just before daybreak. An upper trough will
move over the area along with some convectively induced vorticity
maximums. Therefore, rain/storms will have higher probabilities
Tuesday. Some storms may be strong with brief gusty winds and
small hail. Made some adjustments to the pops and general trends,
but it appears the overall message is still valid through Tuesday.

Early Tuesday morning, low clouds and some fog will be possible.
Local areas may experience visibility drops before the clouds and
fog lift by 9 am.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

Scattered convection has developed along an outflow boundary in
eastern MS, with thunderstorms expected to meander into western
Alabama through the afternoon. CAMs are not handling this
convection well, so confidence remains low on extent of
development this afternoon. Enough instability is over the state
for diurnal convection this afternoon, with a greater
concentration in the central and western portions of the state
where instability is higher. PW values are max for this time of
year so any stronger shower and thunderstorm will produce high
rain rates.

Overnight, an area of thunderstorms is expected to move into
western Alabama in the early morning hours, and lasting through
the early morning. Confidence is low on timing and coverage, but
any activity will produce high rain rates and lightning. Diurnal
activity will be quick to develop by mid day as plenty of
moisture and instability remains over the state. A few areas in
the east and south could see fog development in the early morning.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

A shortwave moving across the area Wednesday should bring chances
for showers and storms to Central Alabama. Similar to the last
forecast cycle, the highest PoPs look to remain across the northern
half of the state. Have made minimal adjustments to PoPs but not
wholesale changes. The frontal passage Thursday should see the
highest rain chances in the central and southeastern counties.
Minimal coverage is expected in the southeast again Friday
afternoon, with much of the area remaining dry. Saturday looks dry
as well before rain and storm chances return again by Sunday
afternoon. The temperature department looks steady-state, as is
typical for this time of year: highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
each day and lows largely in the 60s each night. Friday night lows
will likely dip into the upper 50s in northern and northeastern
pockets behind the front.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

A weak upper level low pressure system will slide into the
southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Thursday as the more amplified
ridge remains across the the southwestern CONUS. This sets up a
northwesterly flow regime for Central AL. At least 2 weak shortwaves
will likely move through leading to increased rain and thunderstorm
chances; however, the timing and track of these shortwaves has shown
significant variability in model guidance each day. Initially, the
first wave on Wednesday seems to stay to our north for the most
part, but there`s some guidance that brings it further south, so
while I believe most of the area could see at least scattered
showers and storms on Wednesday, the better coverage and higher
confidence of showers and storms remains generally north of I-20.
Rain chances increase again Thursday into early Friday as a frontal
boundary pushes southward through the area. This boundary should be
south of our area during the day Friday leading to decreasing rain
chances and drier weather for at least the first part of the
weekend. However, guidance suggests another shortwave could slide
southeastward through the main trough again late Saturday through
Sunday leading to more showers and thunderstorms. Details on exact
timing of these waves will likely change in the coming days so the
forecast will most likely change.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

We currently have a deteriorating convective complex over MS
approaching AL state line. Clouds tops have warmed on satellite.
Lightning activity has decreased greatly and is now basically
SHRA. The bowing feature from earlier has deteriorated as well.
As a result, the near short term will be SHRAs for TCL and toward
sunrise for BHM/EET. By mid morning the remnants will be near
ASN/ANB. Don`t expect much activity for MGM/TOI until later in the
afternoon with heating. There is also the threat of another
convective complex of storms reaching the MS/AL state line late
this afternoon which could bring TSRA to TCL after sunset if it
pans out. Outside of convection, MVFR stratus is expected to
develop over the next couple of hours. A few areas could go down
to IFR as well. Conditions should rebound to VFR 15-16z S to
16-18z N areas.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary pushes into the region late in the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow before
becoming more widespread across the north on Wednesday. Generally
light southerly flow is expected outside any thunderstorm
activity through Tuesday night, with southerly 20ft winds up to
5-7 mph. Afternoon min RH values Saturday may dip below the 35-40
percent range, with drier northerly flow in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  67  88  67 /  80  40  70  70
Anniston    83  68  88  69 /  80  30  60  70
Birmingham  84  70  89  70 /  80  40  60  70
Tuscaloosa  86  71  89  71 /  60  40  60  60
Calera      84  70  88  71 /  80  30  60  70
Auburn      85  69  87  71 /  50  30  40  60
Montgomery  85  70  90  71 /  40  30  50  60
Troy        86  68  91  70 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75/24
LONG TERM....12/25/Owen
AVIATION...08