Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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640 FXUS64 KBMX 020129 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 829 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 806 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 The short wave that brough the rain earlier today has moved eastward into Georgia. This has decreased the rain coverage for the moment. A weaker short wave trough will move over northern areas overnight providing additional lift. Southerly flow in a nearly saturated low level environment will also provide lift and therefore redevelopment of showers and possibly a thunderstorm are possible overnight. It appears that the activity in southwest Mississippi is associated with another disturbance at it will take a more southerly path and stay mostly south of Central Alabama. Made some adjustments to the pops and temp/dew point trends but the overall forecast message looks good through Sunday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 Tonight. While the longwave trough moves east of the area overnight, an unsettled zonal flow pattern is left in its wake, with a few shortwave disturbances progged to continue to move east over the area. Additionally, the diffuse surface boundary will persist across the area, slowly moving to the northeast. The result will be lingering clouds with continued chances for scattered showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms overnight. The better chances for activity will be across the eastern half of the forecast area with slightly lower PoPs to the far northwest. There will be some potential for some patchy fog to develop across portions of the area before sunrise Sunday if winds decrease enough and if there are some breaks in the cloud cover. Winds will be light from the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s far east and northeast to the upper 60s southwest. Sunday. More mid-level shortwaves will move over the area on Sunday while some height rises occur over the Southern Plains through the day. The diffuse boundary will lose further definition as it continues to lift northeast toward Eastern Tennessee. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with continued shower activity and a few thunderstorms with the better chances across the southeast portion of the forecast area. Winds will be from the south- southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 80s far west and southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 No big changes from the previous forecast as the overall pattern remains the same. Even better rain chances will be in place next weekend, so stay stay tuned over the next few days to discuss the impacts to the area. 16 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 Monday through Friday. High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we`ll need to watch this system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 806 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible overnight with a slight decrease on Sunday. There was a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings early this evening. The southerly flow and nearly saturated lower levels will result in ceilings developing at all locations and lowering throughout the night. The ceilings should bottom out between 005-009 with precipitation around at times. VIs will mainly be impacted during the precipitation. On Sunday, much of the day will have MVFR ceilings with the potential of some VFR close to the tail end of the period. Winds will remain southerly for the most part around 5kts. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances remain near or above 30 percent for Sunday and become more isolated on Monday. Winds will become more southerly tonight into Sunday. RH values will remain above 50 through Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 83 63 89 / 60 40 20 20 Anniston 64 83 64 89 / 60 40 20 20 Birmingham 66 83 67 89 / 60 40 20 20 Tuscaloosa 68 86 67 89 / 40 30 10 20 Calera 65 84 66 89 / 60 40 20 20 Auburn 65 82 66 86 / 60 50 30 20 Montgomery 66 84 67 89 / 50 50 20 20 Troy 65 84 66 89 / 50 60 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...75