Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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742 FXUS64 KBMX 130103 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 803 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 744 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 An upper level short wave trough was moving over Central Alabama early this evening. The lower levels are just too dry for any precipitation to reach the ground, although there is some virga falling here and there. Surface moisture is slightly higher over eastern Alabama as a surface trough develops near the Georgia state line. Therefore, overnight lows will not be quite as cool as last night, but still below normal in most locations. Very little adjustments this evening as the forecast remains on track. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 Tonight. The mid-level weakness moves overhead overnight and persists, while the surface front to our south becomes aligned from the southwest to northeast from offshore of the Louisiana coast to near Tallahassee. A weak surface low continues to be progged to develop, aided by the disturbance aloft. Will maintain a 10 percent chance of a few showers and storms overnight across the far southeast portion of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue elsewhere with skies ranging from mostly clear northwest to partly cloudy southeast. Similar to this morning, some brief patchy fog may form near the Coosa and Tallapoosa water features and perhaps some development may occur across the far northwest before sunrise Thursday morning. Winds will be from the east to northeast with speeds from 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s north and west to near 70 far southeast. Thursday. The mid-level weakness will expand, extending from over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico northeast to over the Southern Mid Atlantic States. The stationary front to our south will move further east as a cold front, advancing into Central Florida by early afternoon. Broad surface high pressure will build further into the area from the northwest as mid level ridging expands east over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. Partly cloudy skies are forecast through the morning with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms possible, generally across the eastern portion of the area through late morning. This activity will shift east of the area by the afternoon as the surface front moves further away from the area. Dry conditions will return areawide by the afternoon with decreasing clouds across the east and southeast. Winds will be from the east and northeast at 5-8 mph. With rising heights and higher surface pressures, high temperatures will start to increase with readings from the low 90s far northwest and in the higher terrain east to the mid 90s across much of the south and southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 Temperatures will run above seasonal normals most notably through the weekend as an upper-level ridge axis translates across the Gulf Coast region. High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s are likely with 60s dew points nudging heat index values upwards of 102 degrees. High temperatures look like they will be near record (daily) values. Periodic chances for showers/storms may commence early next week though model spread continues at this range regarding the breadth of activity. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 744 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 VFR conditions will continue. Slightly more lower and mid clouds this evening than originally expected, but little impacts on the flight categories. Moisture will be the highest near the Georgia state but will continue advertising a few clouds 045-060 and some mid level clouds 100-150. Winds will be light and variable to calm overnight and continue light on Thursday. A few showers or storms are possible in far eastern areas on Thursday, but the coverage and placement will not affect any terminals at this time. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... There is a slight chance for a few showers or storms across eastern Alabama on Thursday with no rain currently forecast for Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds should average less than 7 mph with directional variability over the next couple of days. Afternoon minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 91 68 95 / 0 20 0 0 Anniston 65 91 69 95 / 0 20 0 10 Birmingham 65 93 70 96 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 93 68 97 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 64 93 70 96 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 69 90 72 96 / 10 20 0 10 Montgomery 67 93 72 97 / 0 20 0 10 Troy 68 93 71 97 / 10 20 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...75