166
FXUS64 KBMX 130527
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 744 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

An upper level short wave trough was moving over Central Alabama
early this evening. The lower levels are just too dry for any
precipitation to reach the ground, although there is some virga
falling here and there. Surface moisture is slightly higher over
eastern Alabama as a surface trough develops near the Georgia
state line. Therefore, overnight lows will not be quite as cool as
last night, but still below normal in most locations. Very little
adjustments this evening as the forecast remains on track.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

Tonight.

The mid-level weakness moves overhead overnight and persists,
while the surface front to our south becomes aligned from the
southwest to northeast from offshore of the Louisiana coast to
near Tallahassee. A weak surface low continues to be progged to
develop, aided by the disturbance aloft. Will maintain a 10
percent chance of a few showers and storms overnight across the
far southeast portion of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will
continue elsewhere with skies ranging from mostly clear northwest
to partly cloudy southeast. Similar to this morning, some brief
patchy fog may form near the Coosa and Tallapoosa water features
and perhaps some development may occur across the far northwest
before sunrise Thursday morning. Winds will be from the east to
northeast with speeds from 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the low 60s north and west to near 70 far southeast.

Thursday.

The mid-level weakness will expand, extending from over the
Northeast Gulf of Mexico northeast to over the Southern Mid
Atlantic States. The stationary front to our south will move
further east as a cold front, advancing into Central Florida by
early afternoon. Broad surface high pressure will build further
into the area from the northwest as mid level ridging expands east
over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast through the morning with
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms possible, generally
across the eastern portion of the area through late morning. This
activity will shift east of the area by the afternoon as the
surface front moves further away from the area. Dry conditions
will return areawide by the afternoon with decreasing clouds
across the east and southeast. Winds will be from the east and
northeast at 5-8 mph. With rising heights and higher surface
pressures, high temperatures will start to increase with readings
from the low 90s far northwest and in the higher terrain east to
the mid 90s across much of the south and southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024

Temperatures will run above seasonal normals most notably through
the weekend as an upper-level ridge axis translates across the
Gulf Coast region. High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s
are likely with 60s dew points nudging heat index values upwards
of 102 degrees. High temperatures look like they will be near
record (daily) values. Periodic chances for showers/storms may
commence early next week though model spread continues at this
range regarding the breadth of activity.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

A mix of mid and high level clouds are expected across eastern
areas overnight, but with no aviation impacts. Seeing VIS drops
at ASN tonight as localized fog has developed, and will carry a
TEMPO there. Widespread fog impacts are not expected.

Winds remain light and variable through the period. A few showers
or storms are possible Thursday afternoon across the east, but
chances are too low to include at any terminal.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There is a slight chance for a few showers or storms across
eastern Alabama on Thursday with no rain currently forecast for
Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds should average less than 7 mph
with directional variability over the next couple of days.
Afternoon minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  67  95  69 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    91  69  95  70 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  93  69  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  93  68  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      93  70  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      90  72  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
Montgomery  93  70  97  73 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        93  70  97  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...14