339
FXUS64 KBMX 100832
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

This morning, the cold front is near a Demopolis to Alex City line
and sliding south. The bulk of the rain is behind the front right
now, with only a few isolated cores along the front in southwest
Alabama. This should continue to be the trend through the morning
hours. The front should be south of the I-85 corridor after
sunrise and most likely out of the forecast area by Noon to 1 PM.
We will continue to carry rain chances through the afternoon as
what lift we do have is behind the surface front but ahead of the
disturbance aloft. There is a chance for a stronger storm or two
through the morning in the south and southeast, with gusty winds
and small hail possible but widespread hazardous weather is not
expected. Dry conditions areawide tonight and Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the area. A drier airmass will be in place
Tuesday with temperatures back into 80s.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft and subsidence in the wake of trough
along the East Coast, will reinforce a cool and dry airmass
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low PWAT values
and very light northerly winds will promote radiational cooling
with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s
in the south on Wednesday morning. Additionally, most of the
forecast area will experience temperatures below 90 degrees on
Wednesday afternoon.

A gradual warming trend will begin thereafter, with widespread
low 90s for highs on Thursday as an upper-level ridge starts to
move in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot
and dry conditions.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be headed toward
the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. At this time, the deepest
tropical moisture is expected to remain west of Alabama, but the
arrival of higher PWAT values could result in isolated to
scattered showers and storms on Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

Most of the showers and storms will move through the northeastern
sections of the area. There could be some isolated activity across
the north but should be limited to just showers with a low
probability of thunder. There may a brief re-development late
morning into the early afternoon across MGM and TOI so included
prob30 here.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, northerly today then northeasterly on
Tuesday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur through this
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  56  84  56 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    86  57  85  58 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  86  59  85  61 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  59  86  60 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      87  60  86  61 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      87  62  87  63 /  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  89  62  88  62 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        91  63  89  62 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...16