Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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324 FXUS64 KBMX 091848 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 148 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 Key Messages: - Conditional risk for shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon through tonight, some storms may be severe with a damaging wind and hail risk. This afternoon. The forecast area is positioned between a flattening mid-level ridge over the Western Gulf of Mexico and a persistent upper low over far Southeast Canada. A shortwave disturbance is moving east- southeast over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Region, resulting in shower and thunderstorm activity. Further south. a well- defined surface outflow boundary was located by visible satellite across North Mississippi, extending into Northwest Alabama. A surface cold front extended from the Central Plains northeast into the Mid-Atlantic region. So far, low-level convergence along the outflow boundary to our northwest has not been sufficient to overcome the drier air and poor lapse rates aloft that were sampled on the BMX 09/12z sounding. There remains potential for an eventual overcoming of these limiting factors with the formation of sustained shower and thunderstorm activity. If successful, rapid upscale growth would be favored as ample low-level instability exists with SBCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/kg across portions of this area per latest RAP 13 km mesoanalysis data. This area also is experiencing 0-6 km shear values from 30-40 kts which supports storm organization and persistence through time once initiation is successful. If activity can initiate and sustain and grow, a convective complex of showers and storms would move east-southeast, affecting our northwest counties initially through mid afternoon, then expanding southeast, affecting much of our northern and central counties through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy far north and mostly sunny south with high temperatures warmer than forecast, with readings in the mid 90s areawide if a drier scenario prevails. Winds will remain from the west at 5-10 mph. Tonight. Another shortwave impulse associated with a longwave trough will drop southeast over the Mid-South Region this evening. This feature is supporting ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of Northeast Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. This activity will move east-southeast with time and it or its outflow may result in additional shower and thunderstorm development this evening and overnight with the nearing trough from the northwest and the advancing surface cold front that will be positioned roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor before midnight. Winds will become northwest behind the front with west winds persisting ahead of the front with speeds from 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s far northwest to the low 70s generally near and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor. Monday. The national flow pattern amplifies on Monday with longwave troughing over the Tennessee Valley extending northeast toward the upper low located just northeast of Maine while ridging builds over much of the Plains. The surface cold front will continue to advance south toward the Gulf Coast through the day. Decreasing clouds are forecast across the northwest half of the area while lingering clouds with chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across the southern half of the area through the morning hours, becoming increasingly confined to the far southeast counties after noontime. Dry conditions will return areawide by the evening hours. Winds will be from the northwest areawide with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low 80s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings around 90 across the far southeast counties. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 The main focus during the week will be on increasing heat and potential heat-related impacts as we reach the warmest temperatures so far this year towards the end of the week. Upper-level troughing over the Southeast and a large region of high pressure over the Central US will drive northeasterly flow across Central Alabama and highs in the mid 90s. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry for much of the earlier half of the week with small opportunities for rain across the far south related to inverted troughing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 86/Martin Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 A significant upper-level trough east of the Mississippi River and the associated confluence zone will support relative high pressure moving southward into the Ohio Valley and southern states. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control under northwesterly flow at 500 mb. While moisture will gradually increase Thursday through Saturday, the arrival of increased rain chances could be delayed. Models are trending toward more ridging across the Deep South, keeping a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico south of our area through Saturday. Our latest forecast significantly undercuts the NBM POPs Thursday through Saturday, and it is possible that most of the forecast area remains dry. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 VFR conditions will continue for a few more hours across the north and will prevail across the south through this evening. A surface cold front will move south into the area late this afternoon with chances for showers and some thunderstorms. This activity is forecast to affect the northern sites as early as 23z and persist through the night. Rain and storm chances will decrease into the morning on Monday from north to south with much of the activity expected to affect the southern sites as early as 12z Monday and persisting through the end of this cycle. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7 mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area. Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 83 57 84 / 60 40 0 0 Anniston 67 83 58 85 / 60 40 0 0 Birmingham 68 84 61 85 / 60 40 0 0 Tuscaloosa 70 86 61 86 / 60 30 0 0 Calera 68 85 62 85 / 50 30 0 0 Auburn 70 86 65 86 / 40 40 10 0 Montgomery 72 87 66 87 / 30 30 10 0 Troy 71 89 66 88 / 10 40 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...05