Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
703 FXUS64 KBMX 090541 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 Surface temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s to mid 70s late this evening. Therefore, we are in line with hitting the 60s area wide overnight. An outflow boundary from the convection in the north may reach the far northern counties late tonight. Will keep a small pop in just before sunrise in case any activity can get going before sunrise. This boundary will linger around northern areas on Sunday with scattered to isolated mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front approaches Sunday evening leaving a few boundaries for potential convection. Although the surface winds are rather light decreasing surface convergence and a mid level ridge is close by, there is enough instability to allow some convection to develop. These storms will have the capability of producing some damaging winds as they move through from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Little in the way of changes to the forecast at this time. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 Key messages: - Potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday north and central with damaging winds the primary concern. Tonight. Mid-level ridging centered to our southwest looks to contract in size to a limited extent overnight while a mid-level impulse is modeled to move east of the Central Rockies over the Central Plains. Meanwhile, the upper low over Southeast Canada and the Interior portion of New England will remain in place while a longwave trough swings south out of Southern Canada. Expect Fair skies central and south with more clouds over the north as a disturbance moves east over the Central Plains and toward the Mid-South area overnight. After midnight, some shower and thunderstorm activity will move southeast into the northern portion of the state and at least the outflow from this activity should enter our far northern counties in the pre-dawn hours, resulting in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm chances during this time. Winds will be from the south from 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range lower 60s in the northeast to the upper 60s west. Sunday. The mid-level ridge looks to flatten further just to our south on Sunday while a mid-level disturbance moves southeast over much of Tennessee, far northern Alabama and far northern Georgia in the morning, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm chances generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Yet another mid-level disturbance is modeled moving off the Continental Divide and over the Central Plains in the morning and this feature will also move southeast over the Mid-South Region toward mid-afternoon and will provide support for additional convective activity later in the day across our northern and central counties. Residual dry air aloft will largely confine much of the activity to generally near and north of Interstate 20, but this environment with high temperatures in the 90s and increasing dew points will provide ample low-level instability, resulting in potential for some strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. Winds will be from the southwest to west at 5-10 mph and high temperatures will range from around 90 far north and in the higher elevations northeast to the mid 90s south, west and central. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 HREF suggests a risk for a couple severe thunderstorms will continue into Sunday evening per precipitation probabilities and severe parameters. The extent is to be seen pending trends earlier in the day (sufficient support from upper-level flow, outflow propagation, amongst other things). A level 1 out of 5 risk is advertised into Sunday evening. Another surge of lower dew points is expected through midweek before gradually climbing later in the week as a potential area of low pressure evolves atop the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rain/storm chances may also climb for parts of the region pending the manifestation and track of this potential area of low pressure. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 VFR conditions for the next 12 to 15 hours. A band of showers and storms will likely develop in northern MS and then slide into the area by 21z. Look for showers and storms to impact the west by 22 to 23z, central 23 to 00z and then the east by 00 to 1z. The southeast may see activity at 1z. Went ahead and included all sites with a prob30 and will decide if we need to introduce higher chances with the 12 or 18z TAF issuances. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7 mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area. Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 65 83 58 / 20 40 20 0 Anniston 92 68 83 60 / 20 40 20 10 Birmingham 94 68 84 62 / 20 40 20 0 Tuscaloosa 94 70 86 63 / 20 40 20 10 Calera 94 69 85 63 / 20 40 20 10 Auburn 93 71 85 65 / 10 30 30 10 Montgomery 95 72 88 67 / 10 40 30 10 Troy 95 71 89 67 / 10 30 40 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...16