Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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050 FXUS64 KBMX 081847 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 Key messages: - Potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday north and central with damaging winds the primary concern. This afternoon. Expansive mid-level ridging extended from over New Mexico southeast to over the Western Florida Panhandle with this featured centered over Southeast Louisiana. A stationary front extended from the ArkLaTex region southeast to across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and eastward into the Northern Florida Peninsula while surface high pressure was centered over the Southern Tennessee Valley Region. Skies were mostly sunny over much of the area with the exception across our northern counties where scattered mid and high-level clouds were moving overhead from a dying convective complex moving into the Mid-South Region. Expect partly cloudy skies north and mostly sunny skies for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will gradually become more east to southerly through the afternoon with speeds from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the higher terrain east and north to the low 90s west and south. Tonight. Mid-level ridging centered to our southwest looks to contract in size to a limited extent overnight while a mid-level impulse is modeled to move east of the Central Rockies over the Central Plains. Meanwhile, the upper low over Southeast Canada and the Interior portion of New England will remain in place while a longwave trough swings south out of Southern Canada. Expect Fair skies central and south with more clouds over the north as a disturbance moves east over the Central Plains and toward the Mid-South area overnight. After midnight, some shower and thunderstorm activity will move southeast into the northern portion of the state and at least the outflow from this activity should enter our far northern counties in the pre-dawn hours, resulting in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm chances during this time. Winds will be from the south from 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range lower 60s in the northeast to the upper 60s west. Sunday. The mid-level ridge looks to flatten further just to our south on Sunday while a mid-level disturbance moves southeast over much of Tennessee, far northern Alabama and far northern Georgia in the morning, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm chances generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Yet another mid-level disturbance is modeled moving off the Continental Divide and over the Central Plains in the morning and this feature will also move southeast over the Mid-South Region toward mid-afternoon and will provide support for additional convective activity later in the day across our northern and central counties. Residual dry air aloft will largely confine much of the activity to generally near and north of Interstate 20, but this environment with high temperatures in the 90s and increasing dew points will provide ample low-level instability, resulting in potential for some strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. Winds will be from the southwest to west at 5-10 mph and high temperatures will range from around 90 far north and in the higher elevations northeast to the mid 90s south, west and central. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 We have a much clearer picture of the long term period than 24 hours ago with the GFS finally coming into agreement with the ECMWF. A large trough over the eastern CONUS will deliver a cold front to our area Sunday night into Monday. Modest upper-level support and lift near the front may be sufficient for isolated or scattered showers and storms Sunday night through Monday afternoon. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday. An increase in moisture and rain chances may take place on Thursday and Friday with the possible development of a subtropical low in the Gulf of Mexico. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Mid and upper level clouds will be thicker across the northern portion of the area while mostly clear conditions will prevail across the south this afternoon and evening. Mid and upper cloud cover will slowly increase over the northern sites overnight into Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm activity possible near the northern terminals through the mid to late morning, but potential is too low to mention at this issuance. This potential looks to be greater near and past the end of this cycle while dry conditions will continue across the southern sites. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain free conditions expected areawide through tonight. Minimum RH values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon. 20ft winds will vary from northwest to southwest by this afternoon and remain at or below 7 mph. Rain chances return to the north Sunday afternoon, with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40 percent in the far southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 91 65 84 / 20 30 20 20 Anniston 64 92 68 85 / 0 30 20 20 Birmingham 68 94 69 85 / 0 20 20 20 Tuscaloosa 66 96 70 87 / 0 20 20 20 Calera 65 94 70 87 / 0 20 20 20 Auburn 66 93 71 87 / 0 20 20 20 Montgomery 65 94 72 90 / 0 0 20 20 Troy 65 95 71 90 / 0 0 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05