Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
577 FXUS64 KBMX 072322 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 622 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024 This afternoon. The forecast area is positioned between a longwave trough to our east and broad and expansive ridging over much of Mexico and the Southern Plains. Modeling depicts the quick movement of a mid- level impulse southeastward over Eastern Alabama into Georgia this afternoon through early evening. Surface Theta-E analysis shows the presence of a weak front that extended near Demopolis northeast to near Alexander City at the 1 pm hour. With the upper support, this boundary will continue to move further southeast through the rest of the afternoon. Skies are sunny across the north and the western areas while mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions were being experienced across portions of our east and southeast counties where enough residual moisture in the low to mid levels reside. Drier air will continue to arrive from the northwest through the afternoon, resulting the clouds becoming further confined to the southeast through late afternoon. Dew points will also continue to decrease through the 50s as the afternoon progresses with drier air mixing down from aloft. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-16 mph and breezy at times. Highs will range from the mid 80s far north to the low 90s across the southern third of the area. Tonight. The longwave trough moves east off the Southeast Atlantic Coast tonight while the broad and expansive ridge builds into the area, becoming centered over Southeast Texas. The weak surface front reaches the Northern Gulf Coast tonight while strong surface high pressure expands over the Tennessee Valley Region. Look for clear skies areawide overnight with winds from the north and northeast from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures may fall into the mid 50s in the normally colder more sheltered valley locations far east and northeast with readings from the upper 50s northeast to the low 60s far south. Saturday. Broad and expansive ridging will persist over the area with the feature becoming centered further east over New Orleans on Saturday. Surface high pressure will become centered across Northeast Tennessee with dry conditions persisting locally. Some disturbances aloft will rotate east around the ridging, resulting in showers and storms to our north, but the only expected effects for our area will be some additional mid to upper level clouds spreading southward over our north and central counties. Winds will become more southerly through the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s north and northeast to the low 90s south and southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024 Sunday, a trailing cold front associated with a large upper low rotating over southeastern Canada will push southward through the Tennessee Valley. Convection should mainly remain to our north through the morning and early afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to spread into north Central Alabama mid to late afternoon and through the evening, as the front drifts southward and outflow boundaries interact with an unstable airmass characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE and 40-45kts of bulk shear. Will hold off on mentioning any severe storms, as convective temps are rather high given warm low levels, and development will depend on outflow boundaries or the arrival of the front - which is still uncertain given the flow becoming zonal aloft. Models are in better agreement this afternoon through the rest of the week, as the front pushes to our south Monday and troughing deepens over the Eastern CONUS. A developing upper low will move across the Southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley by mid week. This low will dive toward the Gulf coast, and pull moisture back northward into the area for the second half of the week. An upper level low getting caught within a ridge is a fairly low confidence solution this far out. Expect rain chances to increase in the Wed-Thu timeframe, at least in the south, but with a fair amount of uncertainty will keep rain chances below 60 percent for now. 14 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will become light after sunset tonight and remain light tomorrow. 32/Davis && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain free conditions expected areawide through Saturday night. Overnight RH values recover tonight to above 80 percent. Minimum RH values will range from 28 to 38 percent Saturday afternoon. 20ft winds will vary from northwest to southwest Saturday and remain at or below 5mph. Rain chances return to the north Sunday, with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40 percent in the far southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 89 63 93 / 0 10 10 20 Anniston 58 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 62 92 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 60 92 67 95 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 59 90 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 62 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 90 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 61 92 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...32/Davis