Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
074 FXUS64 KBMX 071708 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1208 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024 The cold front this morning is current just across the northern counties of Alabama but will begin to slide south through the night and into Friday afternoon. In fact it should be along the Gulf Coast by 3 to 4 PM. Winds will be brisk at times but generally less than 15 mph. As we move through the afternoon, high pressure build in and will be in place through Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with Saturday being the warmer of the two. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 247 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024 There is significant model disagreement in the long term period, centered around the evolution of troughing over the eastern CONUS. On Sunday, an upper-level ridge will weaken as it gets booted from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Gulf of Mexico by a developing trough to the northeast. Height falls and the approach of a cold front could trigger isolated convection in our far northern counties Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast confidence drops significantly for Monday and Tuesday. The handling of a shortwave over the southern part of central Canada is wildly different between the ECMWF and GFS. The ECMWF leaves this shortwave behind and develops a deep eastern trough on Monday. The GFS is much flatter with more zonal flow as the trough over Canada gets pulled southward toward the Mississippi Valley. The ECMWF solution would result in a nearly dry frontal passage on Monday followed by dry conditions on Tuesday. The GFS is completely opposite, with the frontal passage delayed in response to a shortwave approaching from the northwest, leading to wet conditions on Tuesday. In general, there is model support for low POPs on Wednesday from both models and perhaps a slow increase in moisture content for Thursday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle with limited areas of scattered clouds across the east and southeast portion of the area this afternoon followed by clear skies areawide overnight. Some limited high clouds will move over the northern sites on Saturday but dry conditions will persist. Winds will be from the north today at 7-14 kts, breezy at times through the afternoon then will be from the north at 3-6 kts overnight followed by a more easterly flow developing during the day Saturday with speeds from 4-8 kts. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filters in today behind a cold front, with rain free conditions expected areawide through Saturday night. Minimum RH values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon and 30 to 40 percent Saturday afternoon. Overnight RH values will range from 75 to 90 percent. 20ft winds will remain from the northwest today, at 5 to 9 mph, before becoming light and variable on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 89 64 92 / 0 0 0 20 Anniston 58 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 62 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 60 92 67 95 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 59 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 62 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 60 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 61 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05