768
FXUS64 KBMX 271245
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
745 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2024

We currently have a surface front extending from New Brunswick,
Canada SWWD to DE then to the Carolinas and WWD to NW AL, continuing
to dip beyond AL afterward into LA/TX with an associated low over NW
AL. This front/low feature is expected to make a little more
progress SEWD across C AL today. However, it is expected to stall
and begin to weaken/fizzle before making it completely through the
area, somewhere between the I20 and I85 corridors. In the upper
levels, we currently have a shortwave deepening into a low
extending out over MS/AL from the main longwave upper trough out
of the ERN half of Canada. The main trough will move EWD tonight
off toward Nova Scotia. This will allow the shortwave energy over
the Deep South to break off as a weakened low. The flow gets
stagnant over AL ending any push for our surface system resulting
in it washing out. However, with a lingering boundary, pops will
remain elevated into Friday with a somewhat more diurnal trend.
With that said, with more cloud cover and high pops, our high
temperatures should stay out of the record values through the
short term.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2024

Key message:

- Oppressively hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend,
  with dangerous heat possible on Sunday as heat indices rise
  above 105 degrees. A multi-day heat wave is expected to
  continue through much of next week. Best rain chances will exist
  Saturday through Sunday, with scattered showers and storms
  possible each afternoon through the end of the forecast period.

Another prolonged period of oppressive heat will begin this weekend
as the 500mb ridge begins to build and broaden from Texas all the
way east through the Deep South. The big difference in this heat
wave compared to the one we`ve recently experienced will be the
addition of more tropical low-level moisture with dewpoints expected
to remain in the 70s during the afternoon hours. Rain chances on
Saturday will remain across the eastern and southeastern portions of
Central Alabama, with higher PWATs and deeper 700mb moisture
transport from the southwest. Although shower and storm coverage is
expected to be scattered to numerous, temperatures aloft due to the
500mb ridge strengthening to 597 decameters will be quite warm.
Therefore strong to severe storms are not expected at this time.
Where it doesn`t happen to rain, heat indices will rise between 100
and 105 degrees Saturday afternoon as highs top out in the low to
mid 90s. So, even though we may escape Saturday without issuing a
Heat Advisory, all bets will be off on Sunday.

As the ridge continues to strengthen but slightly retrograde off to
our west, a shortwave trough is expected to move through the Great
Lakes states Sunday morning. A cold front will be moving southward
into northern Arkansas and Tennessee during that time, along with
synoptic lift in the form of a 500mb vort max within the
northwesterly flow. Convective development will be likely with
strong surface instability as temperatures rise into the mid to
upper 90s with dewpoints holding in the low to mid 70s. A Heat
Advisory will be needed if current guidance trends hold, but
widespread convective development (potentially in the form of an
MCS) may throw a wrench in those trends if storms move through a bit
earlier. As of now, heat indices Sunday afternoon should easily rise
between 105 and 110 degrees for just about everyone.

The cold front is currently progged to move southward on Monday,
with a fresh fetch of dry air moving in from the north at 700mb. How
far south the dry air at the surface can move southward is still in
question, which will affect locations that may need another Heat
Advisory Monday afternoon. For now, those locations appear to be
along the U.S. 80/I-85 corridors and points southward with plenty of
moisture pooling out ahead of the surface front. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms can also be expected across the southern
half of Central Alabama. The 500mb ridge is currently advertised to
build back in over Deep South through Thursday, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible during the peak heating of the
day. As highs top out in the upper 90s each day, we could enter into
a prolonged period where Heat Advisories may be needed for several
days in a row. With this being said, we`ll also have to start
keeping an eye on the dreaded Drought Monitor, with significant rain
chances staying out of reach likely through the end of next week.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2024

All sites are currently VFR. We have a mix of VFR and IFR cigs at
present. MVFR to IFR should spread across most of C AL over the
next few hours lasting through midday as a surface low inches SE
into the state. There will be chances for SHRA and TSRA across the
area at times as the low drags a frontal boundary toward the I20
corridor by sunset and a little further SE toward the I85 corridor
tonight/Thu night. Overall winds should be light outside of
convection. Some reduced vsbys may occur briefly with heavier
convection.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected today
across much of Central Alabama, but widespread wetting rains are
not expected. Min RH values this afternoon will be much higher
than previous days, in the 55 to 65 percent range. Transport winds
will remain light and variable at times through the afternoon
today. Fortunately, we`re not expecting much in the way of gusty
erratic winds with showers and storms today like what was observed
on Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will remain in the
forecast for Friday, confined more to the southern half of Central
Alabama. Transport winds are expected to increase out of the
southwest between 10 and 15mph by Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  69  91  72 /  50  30  50  20
Anniston    87  71  90  74 /  60  30  50  20
Birmingham  88  72  91  75 /  60  30  40  20
Tuscaloosa  89  72  91  75 /  50  30  40  10
Calera      89  73  92  75 /  60  30  50  20
Auburn      86  72  89  74 /  70  40  60  20
Montgomery  89  73  92  74 /  70  40  60  20
Troy        88  72  90  73 /  70  40  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...08