266
FXUS64 KBMX 251153
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
653 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2024

A pre-frontal trough is currently moving toward I-65 this morning
with a cold front nearing the Alabama line from the northwest.
Rainfall has decreased a touch along the first boundary, but
additional showers and storms have developed in Mississippi ahead of
the front and will sweep through the area this morning. This area
will likely expand into the southeast during the afternoon ahead of
the boundary. There is a small chance of seeing a severe storm or
two with damaging winds and a brief tornado possible through the
afternoon. As we move through tonight, we will see the influx of
moisture from the outer stretch of Helene. This will increase shower
activity in the east and spread northward through the night. Showers
will continue through the night and into the day Thursday, well
ahead of the center of the storm. We will see some substantially high
rainfall totals across the east well ahead of the storm. Localized
flooding may occur in the east. Therefore, a flash flood watch is in
effect.

The center of Helene is forecast to arrive onshore around sunset
Thursday night. Current forecast keeps the area on the west edge of
the storm, so tornadoes should not be an issue. With the current
track, our tropical wind gusts have increased and we now have a 30
to 40 percent chance at seeing tropical force winds in the
southeastern area. If these numbers increase with the next update or
two, we will have to consider a tropical storm watch for a few
counties. At minimum a wind advisory will be needed overnight
Thursday night into Friday morning, but still too early for that.
The biggest impact through Friday morning will be the copious amounts
of rain in the east. If you live in flood prone areas in the east,
you need to make plans now on what you need to do.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2024

Helene is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Friday
morning and then quickly becomes absorbed into the larger-scale cut-
off low by Friday evening. There will be some wrap-around rainfall
across the northern half of Central AL during the day on Friday
before dry air gets wrapped in, decreasing the footprint of rainfall
around the cut-off low Saturday through Sunday. This cut-off low
persists over the region through at least Monday before shifting to
our east Monday night into Tuesday. I won`t completely rule out some
lingering shower activity under the closed upper level low over the
weekend, but most guidance keeps the area rain-free, so my
confidence to mention any rain chances is too low right now, but
it`s something we`ll need to watch for in the next few days.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2024

A slow-moving pre-frontal trough will continue to move slowly
southeastward today. Highest rain probabilities will be across
TCL/BHM/EET/ANB/ASN through the morning, shifting to MGM/ANB by
the afternoon. MVFR cigs are also expected to develop late morning
and may temporarily drop to IFR. Winds will be light through the
morning, becoming northeasterly to easterly at 4 to 7 kts after
15z. Even lower ceilings are expected late in the period but
focused on the short term lines to keep the TAF from being to
verbose.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increasing rain chances expected today through Thursday as a frontal
boundary stalls across the area. Tropical moisture builds into the
area ahead of the potential tropical cyclone today through Friday
keeping Min RHs 60-70%+. Winds increase substantially on Thursday as
the tropical system approaches. Gusts could exceed 30mph in the
eastern half of Central AL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  66  73  62 /  80  70  90  90
Anniston    78  67  75  65 /  80  80 100  90
Birmingham  78  66  74  64 /  80  60  80  80
Tuscaloosa  78  65  78  64 /  80  40  60  60
Calera      79  67  76  65 /  70  60  80  80
Auburn      80  70  76  65 /  90  90 100  90
Montgomery  84  70  76  65 /  90  90  90  80
Troy        82  70  74  64 /  90  90 100  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning
for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...16