504
FXUS64 KBMX 230125
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
825 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 825 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

A 500mb ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with its
axis extending northward across Alabama. The only aside from fair
weather tonight and Monday is the potential for spotty, brief
showers Monday afternoon, similar to Sunday, as forecast soundings
show potential to reach convective temperatures and overcome
subsindence aloft. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to
again reach the lower 90s, between 5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

With continued model agreement in a cutoff upper low approaching
the area from the northwest by Wednesday and the influx of
tropical moisture from the south, have trended rain chances upward
beginning Wednesday. Details on the forecast for the rest of the
week will depend on the development and eventual track of a
disturbance in the Gulf.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep
conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night.
By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough
moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front
onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets
here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It
could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the
main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up
being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures.

However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more
substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth
region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models
start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing,
placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether
or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have
direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in
central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to
keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model,
which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open
(in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next
weekend.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this evening for C AL TAFs.
Some MVFR vsbys may occur 8-13z for a few sites. Otherwise,
look for light/variable to near calm winds tonight into much of
Monday. Some sites may see enough mixing for WRLY winds ~ 4-6kts.
There will be a chance for some isolated SHRA/TSRA in the
afternoon with heating, but chances are too low to mention in TAFs
at this time.

AMD NOT SKED for KANB UFN due to a comms issue.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers or storms are possible Monday and Tuesday
afternoons across the north, but expect most of the area to remain
dry. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in
place, minimum RH values should range from 38 to 55 percent
through Tuesday. 20 foot winds will be westerly to southwesterly
at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for
by Wednesday, with increased rain chances through the end of the
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  91  68  91 /   0  20  20  20
Anniston    70  91  70  91 /   0  20  20  10
Birmingham  71  91  71  91 /   0  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  70  93  71  91 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      71  92  72  91 /   0  20  20  10
Auburn      71  92  71  91 /   0  20  20   0
Montgomery  71  94  72  94 /   0  20  20   0
Troy        70  93  70  91 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08