Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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185 FXUS64 KBMX 192332 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 632 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 Deep-layer easterly flow will persist through Thursday, driven by ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Alberto over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. With no notable features embedded within the flow pattern, fair weather is expected. 89^GSatterwhite && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 Made some refinements to rain chances in the extended as the ridge retreats back to the west. Capped pops at 50 percent given uncertainty with timing of upper level impulses in westerly/northwesterly flow and whether activity will be purely diurnally driven. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 The center of a 596 dam ridge at 500 mb will be centered over Tennessee on Friday on its southwestward course from the Mid- Atlantic states. The proximity of the ridge and high heights along with a weakening of cooler easterly flow, should correspond with a nudge upward in temperatures. Much of the area should see mid 90s on Friday and Saturday with a couple of spots possibly reaching the upper 90s. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, westerly low-level flow will promote similar temperatures despite height falls. As enhanced moisture arrives with southeasterly flow on Saturday and remains in place on Sunday, isolated or scattered showers and storms will return for areas mainly along and south of Interstate 20. Rain chances could continue to increase on Monday and Tuesday as height falls continue across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. One exception may be brief MVFR ceilings at TOI around 12-15z Thursday, associated with a westbound lobe of low-level moisture toward the coast. Otherwise, there will be a varied presence of clouds with easterly breezes upwards of 5 knots at times tonight and upwards of 10 knots on Thursday. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday morning as easterly winds bring drier air to the region. There is an isolated chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon across the extreme southeast, but most of the area will remain dry through Saturday morning. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent range each day through Saturday. Easterly 20 ft winds of 5 to 10 mph are expected each day through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 69 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 72 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 70 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 69 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite