915
FXUS64 KBMX 270742
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
242 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

Very warm and moist conditions prevail across Central Alabama this
morning with surface temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and
surface dewpoints in the lower 70s. These conditions are producing
surface based CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and lifted indices of -4
to -7 Celsius, which are very robust for the middle of the night.
Clusters of strong to severe storms were currently ongoing across
northern MS and far northern AL. The activity will sink southward
through the morning hours and into much of north AL. The models
continue to show a weakening trend as the activity encounters the
northern periphery of the upper ridge, and there is likely a warm
nose around 850mb.

Best chance of severe storms this morning will be for areas north of
I-20. Low level helicity will stay highest across far north Alabama,
so a low end tornado threat will exist for the far northern counties
through the early morning hours. A surface front will push to near
the I-20 corridor by early afternoon. The front will not contain
cooler temperatures, but winds will become westerly and dewpoints
will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Unstable conditions will
continue south of the surface front with a threat for damaging winds
and large hail. Areal coverage of storms will not be high, and kept
rain chances in the 30-50 percent range. The storms will be confined
to the southeast counties after 3 PM, with most of the activity out
of Central Alabama by 9 PM CDT.

Drier air will overspread all of central Alabama tonight and winds
will become calm, which will allow temperatures to fall into the
lower and middle 60s north and upper 60s south by Tuesday morning.
A drier northwest flow on Tuesday will produce warm afternoon
temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but more
comfortable humidity levels.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

High pressure builds in across the region Tuesday night and will
persist through much of the upcoming week. This will lead to
mostly dry conditions for Central AL with seasonably warm
temperatures. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential
for a weak shortwave sliding through the area Wednesday into
Thursday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty in that occurring, so
the forecast remains mostly dry through the period.

Our next chance for rain/storms doesn`t come in until the end of the
week and into next weekend. The ridge shifts slightly to our east,
allowing for an upper wave to dip into the Mid-south at some point,
but model guidance has gone back and forth on this feature, showing
quite a bit of variability in timing and evolution. For now, I`ve
continued to trend rain/storm chances up to 20-30% for next weekend,
but I would expect several changes to that over the next few days.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

Brisk southerly winds thru 15Z at 8-12kts with gusts to 20kts
across the northern TAF sites. Low clouds with cigs arnd 1500 ft
agl have already formed at MGM/TOI and these cigs will spread
across all of Central Alabama by 09Z. A band of strong to severe
thunderstorms will enter northwest Alabama arnd 09Z and reach the
I-20 corridor by 12Z. The line of storms will contain frequent
lightning and periods of intense rainfall. A few of the storms
could produce wind gusts of 40-50 kts for areas along and north of
I-20. The storms will weaken considerably after 14Z. The threat
of storms will shift to areas south of I-20 this afternoon as
surface front pushes southward. Outside convective activity, VFR
conds expected after 18Z. The last of the storms will exit
southeast Alabama arnd 02Z.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the early
evening hours. Some of the storms could produce damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall. 20 foot winds today will be from the
south to southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH
today will be 50-60 percent and Max RH tonight near 100%. No
wetting rain expected after 9 PM tonight tonight and lasting
through Thursday. Northwest 20 foot winds 5-7 mph on Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  63  88  60 /  60  10   0   0
Anniston    87  65  88  61 /  60  10   0   0
Birmingham  88  67  89  64 /  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  67  91  65 /  40  10   0   0
Calera      88  67  90  65 /  40  10   0   0
Auburn      84  68  89  65 /  50  20   0   0
Montgomery  88  69  92  65 /  50  20   0   0
Troy        87  68  91  65 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...58