233
FXUS64 KBMX 300821
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
321 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

The heat will be evident today as we remain muggy and temperatures
will climb in the middle 90s. Right now feels like temperatures are
forecast to be between 105 and 109, so will continue the Heat
Advisory through 7 PM. As for rain coverage, we are already seeing
scattered showers south of I-85 this morning. This will only help
keep dewpoints up in the southeast, but may keep temperatures a
touch below the north. Meanwhile an outflow boundary from a front to
our northwest is pushing southward. This will bring isolated rain
showers to the north just before sunrise. Both of these areas
should dissipate but leave plenty of boundaries around for the day.
Coverage by the afternoon into the evening should be fairly high
once again for late June. Look for highs in the low to middle 90s.

By tonight the frontal boundary will be almost to Alabama and
continue to slide south through the night. Meanwhile a trough will
be along the Gulf Coast. Lingering showers and storms will be
possible across the area early and then shift to the south and east
as the front actually pushes through the area. This will provide
drier air to at least the northern third of the area by sunrise.

As we move into the day on Monday, rain will be limited to the front
itself that should be near the I-85 corridor by daybreak. The front
slows and eventually stalls just south of this. Depending on exactly
how far south it works will increase or decrease the rain chances
across the southeast in the afternoon. We may wind up needing a Heat
Advisory in the far southeast Monday, but will hold off and see
where the boundary is later this afternoon and evening.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Key message:

- Heat and humidity will build through the week with heat indices
  at or above 105 degrees across much of Central Alabama by the
  time the holiday weekend arrives.

A strong subtropical ridge will meander across the Southeast
through the rest of the week, resulting in continued mainly above
normal temperatures and keeping diurnal convection from becoming
too widespread. At the surface, a 1025mb high moving eastward into
the Mid-Atlantic will cause a "cool" air damming wedge to build
down the East Coast. Lingering higher dew points will push
westward from Georgia in advance of the wedge front putting an end
to the temporary humidity reprieve. With low-level southeasterly
flow and weak isentropic lift a couple showers or a storms will be
possible in our southeast counties Monday night. The wedge arrives
on Tuesday with noticeable easterly winds. It will keep highs in
portions of East Alabama in the 80s, while West Alabama remains
hot with heat indices just under 105. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms will be possible with sufficient low-level
moisture, but very dry air aloft should limit coverage and think
NBM PoPs are too high. The wedge weakens by Wednesday, and expect
gradually warming temperatures and heat indices through the rest
of the week with coverage of areas with 105+ degree heat indices
increasing through the week. Expect just isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Friday into Saturday a weakness in the ridge will eventually
develop due to a trough in the westerlies, potentially resulting
in an increasing coverage of convection.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Still some lingering showers near MGM. These should slide south of
MGM by 8z. Clouds and patchy fog will likely develop again, but
not as persistent as the last 2 nights. Any fog/low clouds will
dissipate by 13/14z then showers and storms will develop after
18z. Coverage will be scattered so went with prob30 from 19z to
1z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A humid air mass will remain in place today with scattered to
numerous showers and storms. A drier air mass temporarily moves in
on Monday with RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the
northern half of Central Alabama, and 40 to 50 percent range
across the south. Minimum RH values increase to above 45 percent
areawide for Tuesday. Winds generally remain light Sunday, and
become northerly Monday at 5 to 8mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  69  91  67 /  60  20   0   0
Anniston    94  72  92  71 /  60  30  10  10
Birmingham  95  73  93  72 /  60  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  95  73  92  69 /  60  30   0   0
Calera      95  74  93  72 /  60  40   0   0
Auburn      93  75  93  73 /  60  40  20  20
Montgomery  95  75  95  74 /  60  40  20  10
Troy        93  73  95  72 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16