Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
138
FNUS74 KBMX 260006
FWSBMX
Spot Forecast for Taylor Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
706 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 CDT on September 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with a few showers possible,
followed by increasing chances for showers early Thursday with
showers and some storms expected from late morning through mid
afternoon. The area will begin to be affected by the outer bands
from Helene by mid to late afternoon. Widespread rain is expected
through Thursday, with rain chances diminishing through the day on
Friday. Minimal RH values will be above 60% through the weekend.
Winds increase substantially on Thursday as the tropical system
approaches the northern Gulf coast. Wind gusts of 15-30 mph are
expected across the area Thursday into early Friday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
showers early in the evening, then slight
chance of showers late in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Dispersion index....5.
LVORI...............7.
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58 59 60 61 59 56 54 55 55 56 60
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Temp............73 72 71 70 69 69 69 67 67 66 65
RH..............86 93 92 97 100 97 93 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N NE N
20 FT wind dir..350 000 020 020 010 020 020 020 020 030 020
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
Dispersion idx..4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 5 6 6
LVORI...........5 5 5 6 6 6 9 9 9 9 9
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
showers late in the morning. Chance of showers
in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph late
in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 31 late in the morning, then
increasing to 37 late in the afternoon
decreasing to 30 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63 67 69 70 72 74 77 79 81 82 84 86
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 20 20 20 40 40 40 50 50
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............65 65 67 68 70 72 72 73 73 73 73 71
RH..............100 97 97 93 90 81 81 79 81 79 81 87
20 FT wind dir..N N N NE NE NE N N N N N N
20 FT wind dir..020 020 020 030 030 030 020 020 020 020 020 020
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9
20 FT wind gust.11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 18
Dispersion idx..6 6 7 7 13 27 32 35 37 40 33 30
LVORI...........9 8 8 8 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
showers early in the evening, then showers
likely in the evening. Chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................50 percent increasing to 60 percent early in
the evening, then increasing to 70 percent late
in the evening decreasing to 50 percent
overnight.
LAL.................1 until 0100, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
northwest overnight. Gusts up to 24 mph. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
overnight.
Dispersion index....23 decreasing to 16 overnight.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........87 89 89 88 88 87 87 82 83 83 84 84
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............50 60 60 60 70 70 70 50 50 50 50 50
LAL.............1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............70 69 67 66 66 66 66 65 65 64 64 64
RH..............90 93 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N NW NW NW NW W W
20 FT wind dir..020 010 000 350 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280
20 FT wind spd..9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.19 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 18 19 18 18
Dispersion idx..24 19 24 26 23 23 14 15 16 16 18 18
LVORI...........4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
showers through the day.
CWR.................50 percent decreasing to 30 percent in the
morning, then increasing to 40 percent in the
afternoon.
LAL.................2 until 0700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the morning.
Dispersion index....20 increasing to 28 late in the morning, then
increasing to 51 late in the morning increasing
to 55 late in the afternoon decreasing to 42.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 83 82 80 79 77 76 74 72 71 69 68
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH
CWR.............50 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............64 64 65 66 67 68 70 71 72 72 73 72
RH..............100 100 97 93 90 85 80 76 74 72 71 74
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind dir..270 260 260 250 250 250 240 240 240 240 240 240
20 FT wind spd..10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 20
Dispersion idx..18 18 22 28 28 48 54 58 56 55 51 42
LVORI...........5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Holmes
Requested by...Tyler Coffman
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423056.0/BMX
.DELDT 09/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0