236
FXUS65 KBOI 300238
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
838 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...Current forecast is on track with clearing skies
tonight, followed by sunny, cool, and less windy weather Thursday
as today`s upper trough exits east. A weak Pacific upper ridge
will bring sunny skies and about 8 degrees warming Friday. Then
mostly cloudy but another 5 degrees warmer Saturday ahead of a
weak incoming Pacific trough. The trough will bring a surface
cold front through our CWA Saturday evening, along with a
15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern mountains
Saturday afternoon and evening. However, little if any cooling
will be felt Sunday. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt,
becoming variable 5-15 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W-NW
15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Winds generally NW 5-15 kt through Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...An upper level
trough centered over our area is moving eastward, resulting in
breezy conditions this afternoon/evening and a few showers over
northern Valley County. Gusts between Mountain Home and the
Magic Valley are roughly between 30-45 mph, while elsewhere in
the Snake Plain gusts will be around 20-30 mph. There is a small
chance (10-15%) of lightning in the showers in Valley County,
so strikes are likely to be isolated occurrences if any. Showers
will dissipate around midnight, and that will be the last of
precipitation in the short term. As the trough gives way to a
ridge, dry air will settle in and skies are set to be mostly
clear. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal
today/Thursday, and rise to about normal on Friday.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Models are continuing
to agree on the progression of large scale features. On
Saturday the first of two troughs moves into our area, bringing
just a 15-30% chance of showers across NE Oregon and central
Idaho. Conditions will be breezy Saturday afternoon as the
trough drags a weak cold front through. Sunday will be partly
cloudy and a little breezy in the Magic Valley before the next
trough moves in on Monday. This trough is the stronger of the
two mentioned, and brings in much more moisture. These
characteristics have led to a steady increase in precipitation
potential on Monday. Precipitation chances in the south near
Rome/Twin Falls are roughly 30%, and increase uniformly to the
north near Baker City/McCall where chances are 70-80%. Monday
will be mostly cloudy and the best chance for rain is forecast
to be around noon. This will limit convective potential in the
afternoon somewhat, but summertime temperatures and unsettled
conditions still support a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms. This
trough brings another cold front, supporting continued breezy
conditions. Temperatures in the long term trend a little lower
each day with the progressive fronts, dropping from 5 degrees
above normal on Saturday to 5 degrees below normal by Tuesday.
However, models still show high pressure building in late next
week. While the position and strength vary, there will be a
significant warm up on Wednesday back to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM