Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
308 FXUS65 KBOI 290930 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 330 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...The upper level trough which kicked off numerous showers and thunderstorms yesterday will pass through the area today. Temperatures will be much cooler, with lower valley highs around 70 degrees, about a 20 degree drop from yesterday. Cooler and drier air will result in stable conditions today, and aside from a few showers this morning in eastern areas, most areas will remain dry. Winds will be breezy today as the trough pushes through with gusts 20-30 mph, expect 30-45 mph from Mountain Home east into the Magic Valley. An shortwave trough will move by to our north tonight, resulting in a 20-40% chance of showers in the mountains east of McCall. Thursday will be similar to today as dry northwest flow develops behind the departing trough, except no chance of showers and winds will subside. The flow will turn westerly as a weak upper level ridge moves overhead on Friday. This will bring about 10 degrees of warming with continued dry conditions. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Models remain in good agreement with regard to large scale features, including the passage of two upper troughs - the first over the weekend, and the second early next week. The first trough appears to be the weaker of the two, with just a 15-30 percent chance of showers across far northern Baker County into the West Central Mountains of Idaho. A weak cold front will likely accompany the trough for breezy conditions. Weekend temperatures average slightly above normal. The second trough taps into more Pacific moisture for a better chance (30-60 percent) of showers on Monday. A cold front also accompanies the trough for breezy to windy conditions. Moisture could linger in the north for a 15-30 percent chance of showers on Tuesday, along with near-normal temperatures. Models, including ensembles, diverge somewhat by midweek, although most members agree in depicting an upper ridge developing for dry conditions and a warming trend with temperatures returning to above normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...VFR and generally dry today, but there is a low confidence (around 20 percent) chance of showers at KMYL/KJER/KTWF until 18Z. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. 10k ft MSL winds: SW 15-25 kt, becoming W-NW 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR under scattered mid level clouds. NW winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....BW AVIATION.....BW