573
FXUS65 KBOI 271552
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
952 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing clear skies across
the region this morning as an upper ridge builds in from the
coast. Today will be sunny, dry and around 10 degrees warmer
than yesterday. A few high based showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will work into Harney County by early evening.
The dry near-surface layer would support gusty outflow winds to
45 mph in the immediate vicinity of showers/storms. Tuesday is
still looking to be the warmest day so far this year as lower
valleys approach 90 and mtn valleys reach the mid-70s. The
latest 12Z guidance is still showing a favorable environment for
thunderstorm development capable of producing strong gusty
winds and hail Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies, except high-based
convection late today into this evening near KBNO has the
potential to produce wind gusts 35 to 45 kt. Surface winds:
variable 10 kt or less, becoming generally E-SE 5-15 kt after
28/06Z. 10kft MSL: SW-NW 5-15 kt, becoming SE-SW by 28/00Z.

KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Winds variable 6 kt or less
through 28/04Z, becoming SE around 10 kt kt by 28/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...An upper level
ridge will build over the area today as a deep upper level
trough approaches the coast. Highs today will climb 10-15
degrees from yesterday, resulting in the first above-normal
temperatures in over a week. A weak shortwave and initial influx
of moisture will move into southeast Oregon this evening,
bringing a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Showers/storms will be capable of gusts 40-50 mph due to dry air
near the surface. Southwest flow will increase on Tuesday as
the trough axis moves onshore, resulting in another 5 degrees of
warming and additional moisture. High temperatures in the lower
valleys will climb into the upper 80s, with a 30-50% chance of
reaching 90 degrees. As instability increases with daytime
heating and the trough approaches, showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the area. The chance of showers/storms will
be 30-50% in most locations, except 50-90% across the central
Idaho mountains. The approaching upper level trough and
accompanying wind shear should allow for a few strong storms,
and dry air near the surface may allow for wind gusts up to 60
mph. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, with showers
and thunderstorms decreasing in most areas overnight except the
central Idaho mountains. On Wednesday, the trough axis will move
overhead and shower and storm chances will become limited to
the higher terrain across southwest Idaho. High temperatures
will be 15-20 degrees cooler with gusty post-frontal winds,
strongest in the Magic Valley.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...General consensus that the
trough of low pressure impacting the region mid week will exit to
the east, with dry and seasonable conditions in play for the
remainder of the extended. Some hints of possible convection over
higher terrain for the weekend, but chances remain less than 15
percent.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....MC