053
FXUS65 KBOI 272048
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
248 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Any lingering
showers over Harney county this evening will dissipate shortly
after sunset taking with them the chance for locally gusty
outflow winds. Tuesday will be an active day as a shortwave
trough will swing into Pac NW. Morning virga showers, indicative
of increasing moisture and instability aloft, are possible over
far SE Oregon and SW Idaho. By early afternoon, dynamic forcing
ahead of the trough, coupled with increasing instability and
surface energy will spur thunderstorm initiation over SE Oregon
and higher terrain of southwest Idaho. The shear environment
would favor development of stronger, longer-lived storms
capable of producing gusty outflow winds and hail. Gust
potential is in the 50-60 mph range. Given the pattern have
gone with scattered coverage (25-35%) for thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

Areas that don`t pick up thunderstorm outflow winds will see
gusty winds accompanying the cold front passage Tuesday
evening. Gust potential with the front is up to 45 mph, but
could be stronger through SE Oregon and portions of the Snake
Plain if enhanced by thunderstorm outflow. Winds of this scale
and speed could produce blowing dust which would reduce
visibility. The chance for showers and thunderstorms contracts
into the w-central Idaho mountains Tuesday night as the upper
wave lifts into MT. Winds remain breezy behind the front Tuesday
night, and will maintain speed on Wednesday as flow aloft mixes
to the surface. The chance for mountain showers will decrease
on Wednesday as the air mass stabilizes in the wake of the
departing low. A late spring roller coaster of temperatures
will play out as highs from Tuesday to Wednesday will drop
nearly 20 degrees. For lower elevations temperatures of near 90
on Tuesday will fall off to around 70 on Wednesday.

Thursday through Monday...Deterministic and ensemble model
solutions are favoring the development of a less amplified W-NW
flow pattern through the weekend. However there is still
uncertainty in details regarding minor waves embedded in the
flow. For now carrying dry conditions through Sunday with a low
chance of showers returning on Monday. After Thursday
temperatures are on the upswing warming back above normal for
Sat/Sun/Mon which will place lower valleys into the 80s and
mtns near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR increasing clouds from the west, especially
overnight. High-based convection possible late this afternoon
into this evening near KBNO has the potential to produce wind
gusts 35 to 45 kt. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less,
becoming generally E- SE 5-15 kt after 28/06Z. 10kft MSL: SW-NW
5-15 kt, becoming SE-SW by 28/00Z.

KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Winds variable 6 kt or less
through 28/04Z, becoming SE around 10 kt kt by 28/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....SP