711
FXUS65 KBOI 142035
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
235 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A deep upper level
low will move into the Pacific Northwest today, with a weak cold
front moving through the region this evening and another
stronger front moving through tomorrow morning. A low chance
(20-30% chance) of showers and thunderstorms with this initial frontal
passage will develop through the region in a line from Rome, OR
to McCall, ID late this afternoon into the evening. Current
soundings show dry lower level conditions, with high based
thunderstorms/virga showers likely as this front moves through.
Localized strong outflow winds anywhere from 40-50 mph are
possible with these showers.

As the successive fronts move through the region, breezy
westerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will accompany
each frontal passage. High ridgetops will see gusts to 40 mph.
In addition to these frontal winds, a strong gradient wind will
develop today and tomorrow as the low center moves into the
northwest, tightening the pressure gradient aloft.

Temperatures will plummet from about 5 degrees above normal
today to 10-15 degrees below normal tomorrow with the incoming
cold air mass. The anomalously low system will continue to
bring below normal temperatures through the rest of the short
term period, but Sunday looks relatively dry except for some
high terrain showers in Baker/Valley County.


.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The unsettled pattern will
continue into the long term period, with another upper level
low pressure system developing over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. There is current model disagreement on where the low
center will go, therefore, there is quite a bit of uncertainty
in the amount and extent of precipitation for our region.
The best chance of precipitation with the highest model
agreement is in high terrain in southwest Idaho. Temperatures
will remain below normal, with a chance of snow above about 6000
feet Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is about a 10%
chance of snow accumulation in McCall, ID on Tuesday morning.
After Tuesday, the unsettled conditions look to move east, as a
ridge starts to build into the region. There is still model
discrepancy on the development of this ridge, but the cluster
and ensemble solutions favor the development of a ridge. This
outcome will bring dry conditions and above normal temperatures
for most of the region starting Wednesday through the end of the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mid and high level clouds. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms through Sat/06Z, though confidence is low (less
than 30 percent). Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Low confidence (around 10 percent chance) of
showers/thunderstorms between Sat/00Z and Sat/06Z. Surface winds: W
to NW 8-12 kt. Gusts to 20 kt until Sat/02Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing high clouds Saturday, with 15
percent chance of showers in NE Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains
north of KBKE-KMYL. Afternoon winds increasing to W-NW 15-25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Mid and high clouds Sunday, with a 15-30 percent
chance of rain/snow showers in SE Oregon and w-central Idaho
mountains late Sunday night. Snow levels 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface
winds on Sunday W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts to 15-25 kt.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....BW