400
FXUS65 KBOI 161604
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1004 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow aloft remains over the region
for mostly clear skies today. Temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal with valley highs in the 80s. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Local visibility reduction
from smoke near prescribed fires, especially in the southwest
Idaho mountains. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less this
morning, becoming W to NW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. A few high clouds and some hazy skies near the
foothills due to smoke from prescribed burns in the Boise
Mountains. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR and mostly clear through Saturday,
becoming partly cloudy Sunday. Slight chance (10-20%) of showers
in the West Central Mtns on Friday and Sunday. Surface winds
very breezy on Friday W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt, and
again on Sunday at MUO/TWF/JER W-NW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30
kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Today will see
warm and dry conditions persist as the eastern edge of the
Pacific high pressure system holds sway over the forecast area.
However, expect an increase in high clouds from the northwest as
a low-pressure system approaches from western Canada. Despite
the cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the mid-80s this
afternoon in the lower valleys.

A surface cold front linked with the approaching upper-level
low will sweep southeast across southeast Oregon early Friday
morning and southwest Idaho between sunrise and 11 AM. Following
the frontal passage, expect gusty northwesterly winds to
persist through sunset. The most potent winds are anticipated
across the Western Snake River Plain, with guidance indicating a
40-60% likelihood of wind gusts surpassing 45 MPH from Mountain
Home through the Western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie by
Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Friday are
expected to drop to near-normal levels or around 10 degrees
below todays highs in the valley. Although moisture is limited
with the frontal passage, there is a 20% chance of showers along
the frontal boundary over the higher terrain of Baker County,
Oregon, and the West Central Mountains of Idaho.

Colder northwesterly flow will persist into Saturday as the low
progresses eastward along the Montana/Canadian border. Apart
from a few showers across Valley County, Idaho on Saturday, the
forecast area will remain dry. Saturday morning temperatures
could dip to the upper 30s in the valley, with highs reaching
near normal later in the day.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough
will move through the region on Sunday, bringing a cold front,
cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers (10-20%
chance) to the West Central Mountains. A few snowflakes are
possible above 6000- 7000 feet. After Monday, conditions appear
to be dry with near normal temperatures ahead of an other strong
upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday
morning. This will be the next significant chance of
precipitation over the valleys, with 60% of ensemble members
showing precipitation in the Boise area next Wednesday. 6 hour
PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday are generally 10- 20% in the
Snake Plain and 20-40% elsewhere. Afternoon winds on Wednesday
and Thursday will also be fairly breezy. Temps will be near or
just below normal through the period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JM