048
FXUS65 KBOI 250927
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
327 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...An upper level trough
will move across our area today and bring showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The highest chance of precipitation (40-70%)
will be across the central Idaho mountains and near the
Idaho/Nevada border. Elsewhere, precipitation chances will be
10-30% with the highest chance this morning. Showers will
diminish late this afternoon and end this evening as the trough
exits our area. Temperatures today will be 5-10 degrees below
normal. Expect another day of breezy winds with afternoon gusts
of 20-30 mph, except up 40 mph in the Magic Valley. An upper
level ridge will move overhead tonight and Sunday, and then
amplify on Monday. This will bring mostly sunny skies and a
warming trend. Highs will increase about 5 degrees on Sunday,
then another 10 degrees on Monday with lower valleys reaching
the lower 80s. Winds will decrease on Sunday but remain breezy
across south-central Idaho, with generally light winds in all
areas Monday. A weak system may bring a shower/thunderstorm to
southeast Oregon (5-10% chance) Monday night, but confidence is
too low to include in the forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Good agreement amongst
the deterministic and ensemble data indicating a strong ridge in
place to start the long term period, with a trough poised to
impact the region off the coast Tuesday. This pattern is
expected to spread southwest winds aloft over Oregon and Idaho,
leading to some of the warmest temperatures of the year thus
far. Model blend probabilities of reaching 90 degrees are now
between 40-60% for the lower valleys, with 80-90% chance of 85
degrees or higher. Guidance is suggesting that the heat will be
short-lived, with another series of upper level troughs
impacting the region mid/late week. While significant
uncertainty exists, ensemble data is suggesting a return to
temperatures in the mid/lower 70s for the remainder of the week
after Tuesday. The troughs are expected to raise the chance of
showers as well with POP values approaching 15-45% each day,
with the highest chances over the central mountains of Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers this morning, with the
best chances before 15Z. Mountains obscured in showers with brief
MVFR/IFR conditions in storms. Snow level around 7000 ft MSL.
Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 35 kt, especially SE of
KBOI/KMUO. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. Winds aloft
at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. NW 5-15 kt with brief gusts to 25 kt possible after 16Z.
Chance of showers this morning.

Sunday Outlook...VFR. Improving conditions as high pressure builds
over the region. Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts 25 kt during
the afternoon, and strongest in the Magic Valley of Idaho.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC