002
FXUS65 KBOI 251527
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
927 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...Sunny and hot today, with storms moving in from
the southwest overnight. We don`t get too many overnight
(nocturnal) thunderstorms, so this is an unusual situation. Even
though temps overnight would not seem to support gusty winds
with thunderstorms, we do see the potential for gusts of 40 to
50 mph. After the storms move out of SE Oregon, synoptic-scale
west winds will increase, so any fire starts from lightning have
the potential to spread eastward rapidly. Latest models are
consistent with previous guidance, and no changes are planned at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Hot temperatures will promote high density altitude
today. Increasing mid/high level clouds this afternoon. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue through Wed afternoon, with outflow gusts of 35-45 kt
possible. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt, becoming SW-NW 5-15
kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Hot temperatures will promote high density altitude
today. Increasing high clouds this afternoon, then ceilings
lowering to around 10,000 ft AGL late tonight. A 30% chance of
showers/thunderstorms after 26/09Z through Wed afternoon, with
outflow gusts of 35-45 kt possible. Surface winds: variable up
to 6 kt. Then, NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, shifting to NE around
26/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Sunny and hot today
as an upper ridge builds over the area. Southwesterly flow aloft
will draw in mid and high level moisture from NV, CA, and AZ late
today and tonight with clouds spreading over our CWA. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will move north of the NV border this
evening, then later tonight over nearly all of eastern OR and
Idaho south of the Snake River. A better chance of thunderstorms
(30 to 50%) will come Wednesday morning over the entire CWA,
gradually shifting out of eastern OR Wednesday afternoon as a
cold front moves through, but increasing to near 60% in southern
Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties. Relatively little rain (generally
less than .10 inch) will reach the ground from these thunderstorms
due to dry air in the lower atmosphere, but they will produce
gusty downdraft and outflow winds as well as lightning. Wednesday
night will be cooler than tonight as skies clear, and Thursday
will be windy and much cooler (about 15 degrees) with highs
only in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and mid 60s to
mid 70s in the mountains. Thursday night will be especially cool
as winds die down, with lows 45 to 50 in the valleys and 35 to
45 in the mountains.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Dry and relatively cool
northwest flow will develop Friday in the wake of a trough,
supporting near-normal temperatures for the day. A quick transition
to much warmer southwest flow aloft is forecast Saturday as the next
trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Current models bring the
accompanying cold front through E Oregon and SW Idaho late Saturday
into Sunday, introducing a 15-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms
for this period. Temperatures will lower several degrees from
Saturday, and remain within 5 degrees of normal through at least
Tuesday as troughing persists over the northwestern U.S. Breezy
winds are anticipated both Monday and Tuesday due to a
strengthening surface pressure gradient and enhanced mid-level
flow.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH