Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
172 FXUS65 KBOI 270931 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 331 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...An upper level ridge will build over the area today as a deep upper level trough approaches the coast. Highs today will climb 10-15 degrees from yesterday, resulting in the first above-normal temperatures in over a week. A weak shortwave and initial influx of moisture will move into southeast Oregon this evening, bringing a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Showers/storms will be capable of gusts 40-50 mph due to dry air near the surface. Southwest flow will increase on Tuesday as the trough axis moves onshore, resulting in another 5 degrees of warming and additional moisture. High temperatures in the lower valleys will climb into the upper 80s, with a 30-50% chance of reaching 90 degrees. As instability increases with daytime heating and the trough approaches, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area. The chance of showers/storms will be 30-50% in most locations, except 50-90% across the central Idaho mountains. The approaching upper level trough and accompanying wind shear should allow for a few strong storms, and dry air near the surface may allow for wind gusts up to 60 mph. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, with showers and thunderstorms decreasing in most areas overnight except the central Idaho mountains. On Wednesday, the trough axis will move overhead and shower and storm chances will become limited to the higher terrain across southwest Idaho. High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees cooler with gusty post-frontal winds, strongest in the Magic Valley. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...General consensus that the trough of low pressure impacting the region mid week will exit to the east, with dry and seasonable conditions in play for the remainder of the extended. Some hints of possible convection over higher terrain for the weekend, but chances remain less than 15 percent. && .AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear as high pressure in control. Surface winds: ESE less than 10. 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Winds ESE 5-10 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....MC AVIATION.....MC