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000
FXUS65 KBOI 210914
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
313 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...At 3 AM MDT a cold
front extended from northern Idaho through Pendleton/OR to
Medford/OR. The front will pass through our CWA this morning and
will be dry in our CWA except for sprinkles in the west-central
Idaho Mountains. After the front passes winds will shift to
west or northwest and increase in the Snake Basin to 20 to 30
mph with gusts to 35 mph this afternoon. Post-frontal air mass
will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Clearing and colder
tonight with decreasing winds. Lows in the 20s in the mountains
to mid 30s in the southern Idaho valleys. A light frost is
possible in the ag valleys but less than a 30 percent chance of
dipping to 32F. Monday and Tuesday look mostly clear with warming
temps and light west/northwest under moderate westerly flow aloft.
Winds aloft will turn southwesterly Wednesday as a Pacific trough
nears the northwest coast. Moisture and instability will increase
leading to a 20-40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening on the Idaho side (10-20 percent in
Oregon). Best chance of thunderstorms will be in Owyhee and Twin
Falls Counties.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft
ahead of a shortwave trough will bring continued warm
temperatures and increased moisture on Wednesday. This will
bring a 10-50% chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms, with the best chances in the higher terrain and
near the Nevada border. Temperatures are expected to cool
several degrees on Thursday as the trough moves through. A
deeper trough will move onshore Thursday night and Friday,
bringing a 30-70% chance of showers with temperatures cooling
another couple of degrees to near normal. Many ensemble members
depict the trough developing into a closed low to our west,
before diving south and slowly moving east through the weekend.
While details are uncertain, this should keep our area unsettled
with a continued chance of showers, cool temperatures, and
breezy conditions. Snow levels are expected to remain above
5500-6500 feet through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under mid to high clouds. Surface winds:
NW 10-20 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-SW 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds variable 6 kt or less early this
morning, becoming NW 10-15 kt by 15Z, with gusts 20-25 kt this
afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST