Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
730 FXUS65 KBOI 300921 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 321 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Northwest flow aloft today transitions to a weak upper ridge on Friday, resulting in dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Temperatures trend warmer, from below normal today to near normal on Friday. Breezy west-northwest winds develop on the Snake Plain (east of Boise) by late morning that will continue through early this evening, otherwise winds will be light through Friday. A weak upper trough approaches from the west on Saturday and moves through Saturday night. Moisture will be limited and confined to the far north for a slight chance (less than 25 percent) of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in northern Valley County. Breezy west-northwest winds develop late in the afternoon and continue overnight as a weak cold front moves through the region. The warming trend continues on Saturday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain in good agreement about the overall pattern though the extended. A weak upper level ridge will move overhead on Sunday, bringing dry conditions with temperatures a few degrees above normal. An upper level trough and surface cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. This system will have a good moisture tap and will bring a chance of showers to the area. The highest chance (50-80%) will be across Baker County and the west-central Idaho mountains with a 10-50% chance elsewhere, lowest in the Magic Valley. The cold front is expected to arrive early in the day, limiting potential for thunderstorms, but a slight chance of thunderstorms will develop later in the day as the trough moves overhead. The trough should bring slightly cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday along with breezy winds. On Wednesday and Thursday, ensembles are in good agreement about an upper level ridge building across the West. This will allow temperatures to climb to well above normal, with lower valley highs in the 90s likely (60-70% chance) by Thursday, and even a 10% chance of highs hitting 100 degrees. && .AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-30 kt this afternoon from KMUO east to the Magic Valley terminals. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Winds generally NW 5-15 kt today, with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Weekend Outlook...VFR on Friday. On Saturday, a weak system will bring increasing mid to high clouds. Low confidence in shower/thunderstorm potential with this system, but the best chance for storms will be across the northern mountains. VFR Sunday with chance of showers increasing in the evening. Light winds on Friday, becoming W-NW 5-15 kt Saturday and Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST