730
FXUS65 KBOI 300921
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
321 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Northwest flow
aloft today transitions to a weak upper ridge on Friday,
resulting in dry conditions with mostly clear skies.
Temperatures trend warmer, from below normal today to near
normal on Friday. Breezy west-northwest winds develop on the
Snake Plain (east of Boise) by late morning that will continue
through early this evening, otherwise winds will be light
through Friday. A weak upper trough approaches from the west on
Saturday and moves through Saturday night. Moisture will be
limited and confined to the far north for a slight chance (less
than 25 percent) of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in northern Valley County. Breezy west-northwest
winds develop late in the afternoon and continue overnight as a
weak cold front moves through the region. The warming trend
continues on Saturday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain in good
agreement about the overall pattern though the extended. A weak
upper level ridge will move overhead on Sunday, bringing dry
conditions with temperatures a few degrees above normal. An
upper level trough and surface cold front will move across the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. This system will have a good
moisture tap and will bring a chance of showers to the area. The
highest chance (50-80%) will be across Baker County and the
west-central Idaho mountains with a 10-50% chance elsewhere,
lowest in the Magic Valley. The cold front is expected to arrive
early in the day, limiting potential for thunderstorms, but a
slight chance of thunderstorms will develop later in the day as
the trough moves overhead. The trough should bring slightly
cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday along with breezy winds.
On Wednesday and Thursday, ensembles are in good agreement about
an upper level ridge building across the West. This will allow
temperatures to climb to well above normal, with lower valley
highs in the 90s likely (60-70% chance) by Thursday, and even a
10% chance of highs hitting 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: W-NW
5-15 kt, with gusts 20-30 kt this afternoon from KMUO east to
the Magic Valley terminals. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W-NW
15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Winds generally NW 5-15 kt today, with gusts up to
20 kt this afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR on Friday. On Saturday, a weak system
will bring increasing mid to high clouds. Low confidence in
shower/thunderstorm potential with this system, but the best
chance for storms will be across the northern mountains. VFR
Sunday with chance of showers increasing in the evening. Light
winds on Friday, becoming W-NW 5-15 kt Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST